EquityCompound2

31st May' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 9.30 PM  | #Nifty opened gap down today and then attempted taking off the highs made yesterday. However the indices were sold off at higher levels and closed slightly above todays lows. #Nifty made a Doji kind of a candle indicating some uncertainty ahead. #BankNifty on the other hand opened lower and then got sold off further to close below yesterdays lows, making a bearish candle on the daily chart. Seems a bit weaker here. Levels today : Following the strong movements in the US markets on Friday, our indices made some strong moves on Monday and Tuesday, however, the sustenance has to be proven tomorrow, after the monthly closing in US today. As of now the direction of #Nifty seems uncertain, though #BankNifty is clearly weak. As seen in the levels above #Nifty has to hold 16500 and #BankNifty has to hold 35375. If breached the market slides back into the previous range. #FII today sold for 1000Cr and #DII bought for 1845...

27th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written on 29th May' 2022 at 6.15pm  | Indian indices #Nifty and #BankNifty after opening gap up on Friday, started sliding, however the dip was bought and the Indices gave a breakout from the day highs and closed near the day highs. The daily chart show a candle with a long lower tail indicating buying at lower levels. The buying at lower levels shot up the indices and triggered a sharp short covering on both #Nifty and #BankNifty, with a loss of 20% and 16% in the open Interest. Let us look at the levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty closed at day highs and close to their resistance levels. I see #Nifty facing resistance at 16400 and #BankNifty at 36300. Just in case if these are taken down, next levels to watch for are 16750 and 36800 for #Nifty and #BankNifty respectively. The options #OpenInterest shows a tussle between bulls and bears at 16300 for #Nifty. This level has to be closely watched. A wider trading range of 16000-16500 ...

25th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 9.00 PM  | Opening to a mixed set of global cues, our markets opened gap up, but then got constantly sold off to close at the lower end of the trading range today. While Bank Nifty seems a bit stronger than Nifty, for a good part of the day, finally it also settled lower. On a daily chart, Nifty made bearish candle for a third consecutive day. It has now drifted towards the lower end of the trading range. From a weekly expiry standpoint, picking support at 16000 is absolutely necessary, else a drift towards 15800 is on the cards. Lets look at the levels : The setup of charts is extremely weak and a deeper correction seems imminent. However, the monthly expiry tomorrow, may prevent a deeper fall. Also a strong closing in the US markets today may also provide some support, so keep a watch on the US close and opening tomorrow. HDFC Bank has been supporting the Bank Nifty. While some banking stocks were weak today, HDFC Bank wa...

24th May' 2022 (Evening) --  |  Written on 25th May' 2022 at 6.00 AM  | Indices yesterday opened flattish with a negative bias. While Nifty sold off through the day to make a bearish daily candle, Bank Nifty actually closed managed to close in green though a small number. 16400 continues to prove a strong resistance for Nifty. It actually breached its first support yesterday and shifted it a bit lower. Seems weak on charts as of now. Let us look a the levels : Looking at the above levels, Nifty has to hold 16075 to avoid a deeper sell of again to 15800 levels and Bank Nifty has to hold 34100, else a deeper sell off to 33000 levels is possible again. This move if happens may weaken Nifty as well. Individually HDFC Bank has been holding the fall on Bank Nifty. Question is how long? Interestingly if we look at the charts, the candles have been kind of repeating themselves. The last two candles on the weekly chart for Nifty as exactly similar and the last two candles on the d...

20th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 22nd May' 2022 at 9.00 PM  | Indices on Friday showed a sharp recovery from the previous lows and a gap up opening on Friday. I mentioned that above 16000 the indices could be strong and they opened above these levels, triggering a sharp short covering and helped elevate the indices higher. Though the indices are yet to be tested at higher levels of 16400, an intraday dip was bought out, raising hopes of a pull back. Now the indices are again sitting at very interesting levels. So both Nifty and Bank Nifty made inside candles on a daily chart. Over the last week, the levels have been like this. The markets open with a gap up or a gap down and then drift in the same direction for some time, making the markets extremely difficult to trade. The current range of the markets and limits created are  15750-16400.  I feel that this range is now imminent to be broken. The million dollar question is which side? :-) While a slight...

19th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 20th May at 6.00 AM | Indices opened to an extremely weak handover from the US markets yesterday and also opened in a zone which was not conducive for longs. Hence as I mentioned yesterday, the indices opened below 16000 and then started coming under pressure, giving away everything that was gained on the previous day. We are now standing at a very crucial level. With Nifty already touching the 15670 low yesterday and not having recovered from there, we are now witnessing a serious threat of breaching this level and if it does happen, we risk a thousand point fall. Let us look at the levels : Yesterdays close was extremely weak. Partially fueled by the US futures as well. Yesterday when we closed, US futures was showing 400 point red. We however did not close that bad in US. This is the reason SGX Nifty this morning is 135 points green. Whether our markets would open there, may be yes if the US futures keep showing optimism. Seeing th...

18th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 9.30 PM | Markets today completed their pull back making a high of 16400 on Nifty and 34163 on Bank Nifty. I mentioned this in my notes yesterday, that the next level for Nifty is 16400. This happened and Nifty slipped to a low of 16211. Bank Nifty also made a low of 34134. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed near the day lows, making strong bearish daily candles. While they are still making a higher high and a higher low, i believe this pattern may change tomorrow and we may see a slip on both the Indices. Lets look at the levels : So Nifty turned down today and is now on a lower time frame making a down trend. This has to stop above 16200. I doubt this would happen tomorrow as the US Indices are trading sharply lower and we may end up opening gap down tomorrow. So technically we again reach the same levels of  15725. If this is not held, we go back to where we were 2-3 days back. Now what does this mean, if the Indices this time r...

17th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.00 PM | Finally that much awaited pull back came today. The Indices gave a sharp pull back of 400 points on Nifty and 700 points on Bank Nifty. With two successive green candles Bank Nifty has actually recovered 1300 points. Nifty was hovering its previous lows of  March and Bank Nifty was also getting closer to the March lows. I had mentioned in the previous notes that a leap of faith can be taken for a bounce back of 250 points. It actually came in for 400 points. Almost similar for Bank Nifty.  I mentioned yesterday, that Bank Nifty was a surprise. I has expected a little more fall before this pull back, but then that is what the markets are known for, Giving surprises. Lets look at how the levels look like : While both the indices have risen sharply, I feel they are not out of the woods. The first level i mentioned for Nifty was 16100. This has been taken down. The next level is now 16325 (Actually 16400). If this is ...

13th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 15th May' 2022 at 9.00 PM | Opening gap up on Friday, the indices for some time gave a feeling of picking support, however, these hopes were washed in the last two hours with Nifty, almost vertically, falling for 340 points and Bank Nifty falling for 1000 points.  On the daily chart, Nifty created a candle almost similar to the previous way, while Bank Nifty created a strongly bearish candle. Now let us look at the levels first, and then we will discuss further : Looking at the levels closely. Nifty is positioned at a very important level. I feel from this level one leap of faith can be taken with the level of 15650 as a stop loss. This will be however for 250 points as Nifty is still sitting with a strong resistance at 16000-16100 levels. Any reasonable strength can only build only if Nifty starts closing above these levels. The strategies can be taken as per ones individual trading style. On the flip side, While I do not expect...

10th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 9.30 PM | US indices lost ground again yesterday and our indices opened to a weak handover from US today. Though SGX was showing a negative opening till the actual opening of our markets, our indices opened marginally in red and then gained grounds to rise. While Bank Nifty retained a good part of this rise, Nifty actually gave it all away. On a daily chart. Nifty's candle is almost exactly similar to yesterday, except the low was higher. Nifty's yesterdays high and todays high are almost same, though the low is much higher. Bank Nifty on the other hand made a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low. This makes a chance of a bullish reversal on Bank Nifty. HDFC Bank has show strength as well and this could turn around the Bank Nifty Index for a decent pull back if the cues support. I believe a decent risk can be taken on Bank Nifty, keeping in mind the levels below. Now the levels : In case, one wants to go long either o...

9th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.15 PM | Interesting days these are. Following a deep sell off in the US, our Indices, After a gap down opening on Friday and again another gap down opening today, refuse to fall further during the day. Exceptionally strong buying from the domestic institutions is holding the fall during the day. I felt on both days, the selling may intensify at some point, however, it keeps surprising and for good. Now, god knows why are the domestic institutions buying so much. One reason that i can think of is the interest of retail in Index based ETF. A heavy influx of money in these fund, induces immediate buying. On the other hand there may be some Index management to efficiently manage the Dollars moving out of our markets. Lets look at the levels : Now looking at the levels, the indices have gradually started approaching their major support levels. As mentioned yesterday, Nifty took support from 16150 today and Bank Nifty opened at 34100 and ...

6th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 8th May at 11.00 PM | After the steep fall in US on Thu night, our markets opened to extremely weak cues, though the aggressive buying by the DII provided support to the markets and did not allow a further fall through the day. Markets however traded in a shallow range, with Nifty trading in a range of 144 points and Bank Nifty in a range of 444 points. After the opening, I expected a steep fall from there but the DII buying absorbed most of the selling by FII.  Lets look at the levels before we discuss further : The markets on Friday though did not fall after the opening, they also could not recover from there. A few failed attempts were visible indicating lack of conviction in the bulls. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty breached and closed below some critical levels as shown in the notes on Thu. While Nifty closed just below 16425, Bank Nifty closed much below 35000. The next important levels from here now, are much lower. Nifty is now...

5th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.00 PM | Markets opened strong after a US relief rally today. Counterintuitively, I believe being a weekly expiry today, there was some calm in the market. Though the indices lost a good amount of ground from their day highs and also closed at the day lows. The US Futures started showing red quite early in the day. Normally, our markets follow this strongly, our fall was not that steep. On any other day, this fall could have got aggravated after it came below yesterday's close. Lets look at the levels first.... Now look closely at the levels. Nifty closed close to the previous day, after opening gap up and rising for some level. Almost same for Bank Nifty. The daily chart for both shows a bearish candle with a reasonable upper wick. This is indicative of selling at higher levels. Also both Nifty and Bank Nifty made inside candles today, taking them out of that over sold zone in some way.  Fresh shorting on the indices is visible...

4th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 10.00 PM | So, It was an oops !! day today. Markets opened gap up with some cheer, but then came the spoiler from RBI and the indices tanked. In a surprise move, RBI declared a 40bps repo rate increase. Probably an Inflation driven decision, this caused some anxiety in the markets and led to a sharp fall. Nifty lost almost 500 points and Bank Nifty lost 1100 points in a almost vertical fall. Nifty and Bank Nifty breached its important levels. Almost similar was the situation with many major stocks.  So let us look at the levels below : Nifty breached its support of 16875 and Bank Nifty breached its support of 35500. With this now the next important support we are looking at is 16425 on Nifty and 35000 on Bank Nifty. Concern is if these are taken down, we are looking at a deeper correction to 16200 and 34000 on Nifty and Bank Nifty respectively. As of now the FED has declared a rate rise of just 25 basis points against an expectati...

2nd May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 9.30 PM on 3rd May' 2022 | Markets opened with a lot of anxiety on Monday Morning. Nifty opened around 130 points gap down and Bank Nifty opened around 500 points gap down. Supported by a strong sentiment on US futures and heavy DII buying, the Indian Indices held their ground and closed after making a reasonable recovery from the opening lows.. While the Indices closed at the highs and made a bullish candle after a gap down opening, they are still not out of the woods. Keep an eye on the US closed every day and global cues coming in every morning.  Yesterday both Dow and Nasdaq gave a green closing after losing heavily over the last couple of days. However, their is a lot of uncertainty on the relief rally as the market waits to get a direction from the FED meet. As mentioned above lets see, how it moves today. Lets look at the levels now Our Indices have been holding to two broad factors. They take cues from US and support from ...

29th April' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 1st May' 2022 at 7.00 PM | After a surprise given by the market on Thu (Monthly) closing and Fri opening, the indices actually obliged by giving a sharp down turn. My view mentioned on Thu morning was bearish and I expected the indices to close weak on Thu. The indices actually closed strong and then also opened strong on Fri (also the first day of the May series). However in the second half of Fri trading, markets witnessed a sharp selling. The indices lost heavily. Nifty lost 320 points and Bank Nifty lost 700 points in second half. Lately our markets have been sensing the sentiments in US. On Fri only the Indian indices lost ground. Most of the Asian markets closed in green and Europe also closed in green. US closed deep in red on Friday. Nasdaq losing more than 4% and Dow losing 2.7%.  Global markets would not react to this on Monday. China however is closed for Mon to Wed.  Lets look at the levels first and then we wi...