2nd May' 2022 (Evening)

2nd May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 9.30 PM on 3rd May' 2022 |

  • Markets opened with a lot of anxiety on Monday Morning. Nifty opened around 130 points gap down and Bank Nifty opened around 500 points gap down. Supported by a strong sentiment on US futures and heavy DII buying, the Indian Indices held their ground and closed after making a reasonable recovery from the opening lows..
  • While the Indices closed at the highs and made a bullish candle after a gap down opening, they are still not out of the woods. Keep an eye on the US closed every day and global cues coming in every morning. 
  • Yesterday both Dow and Nasdaq gave a green closing after losing heavily over the last couple of days. However, their is a lot of uncertainty on the relief rally as the market waits to get a direction from the FED meet. As mentioned above lets see, how it moves today.
  • Lets look at the levels now
  • Our Indices have been holding to two broad factors. They take cues from US and support from DII. Now this has become a kind of pattern. A huge amount of selling has been absorbed by the DII.
  • FII have so far sold equity worth 3.16 lac Cr from April'21. They have been net sellers for 12 months (except for Sep'21) in a row and 13th running now. DII on the other hand absorbed 2.46 lac Cr from this selling.
  • This is probably one of the largest selling spree of FII over the past couple of years.
  • As mentioned yesterday, both DOW and Nasdaq are still in a weak zone. Nasdaq needs a close above 13500 and Dow needs a close above 34050 to pick some support. 
  • Meanwhile, our indices will only pick reasonable support once they give a close above 17350 and 36625 on Nifty and Bank Nifty respectively. Till then keep selling on rise as per your risk appetite and risk reward.
  • Options OI indicate a support of 17000 to 17500 for Nifty and 36000 to 37000 for Bank Nifty. Buying on a dip for a target of 17300 on Nifty and 36600 on Bank Nifty is ok till the levels of 16950 on Nifty and 35850 on Bank Nifty is held. 
  • Dollar Index continue to spook and is at 103.35. While the US 10 Year yields are at 2.928. Both of these will take their next clue from the FED outcome this week. 
  • Oil at 106 Dollars continues to keep the pressure on and many Asian countries seeing a rise in Covid cases needs to be watched. Lately, Cases have been on a rise in India also. However, as of now, no need to worry, but keep an eye on it.
  • British PMI data today was strong and the US jobs data was also strong. Watch for the FED meet tomorrow.
  • Over all the markets would follow the Global cues. SO while i do not see a concern in long term to mid term, traders on a short term exposure have to be careful.

1. FII were net sellers for 1853 Cr today, while DII were Buyers for 1951 Cr. A net buying of 98 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 846 longs and created 8513 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  unwound 39275 short calls and   created 27451 short puts. They also unwound 97722 long calls and  created 7766 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17000 followed by 16800 and highest OI for CE is at 17500 followed by 17600. Highest Put writing was seen at 17000 and highest call writing was seen at 17000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 36000 followed by 35500 and highest OI for CE is at 37000 followed by 36500. Highest Put writing was seen at 36000 and highest call writing was seen at 36000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed yesterday and trading mixed today. Europe closed in red yesterday and as of now trading in green

7. US markets closed in red yesterday and trading in green as of now

8. The breadth of the market was weak yesterday

9. Nifty opened at 16924 and made an intra day high of 17092 and a low of 16917 before closing at 17069 .The range of Nifty for the day was 175 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35627 and made an intra day high of 36235 and a low of 35618 before closing at 36163 .The range of Nifty for the day was 617 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 103.358

12. IT, Auto and PSU Banks were majorly down. Other sectors closed ok.

13. India VIX increased to 10.2825

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.928

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short covering

17. US Brent oil eased to 106.16

18. USD / INR eased to 76.513

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

4th November' 2022 (Evening)

Image
4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  | Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis. I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels. On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears. We will discuss all this, but before that, levels... From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first...
Read more

28th October' 2022 (Evening)

Image
28th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 9.30 PM on 30th October' 2022   | The last month closed on a high note. Starting weak, the month of October saw decent gains and closed almost at month highs. Market was still strong and on the first day of the current series also, the indices were relatively strong.  #Nifty made 4 consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty made a bearish candle after 3 bullish candles, however still made a higher high and a higher low. Levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty are in a range of 17650 to 17900 and 39825 to 41550 respectively. In this range #BankNifty saw some profit booking on Friday, while #Nifty is yet to test the upper level. I expected #Nifty to test 17900 on Friday, however this did not happen. This may probably get breached in the opening tomorrow. Important to see is that will this trigger a profit booking and a rejection of the level or will the level hold. On Friday, the first tr...
Read more

25th October' 2022 (Evening)

25th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 11.00 PM on 26th October' 2022  | 1. FII were net selling for 247 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 872 Cr. A net buying of 625 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 1390 longs and unwound 17862 shorts on the index futures 3. On the option front FII  unwound 7656 short calls and   unwound 28440 short puts. They also closed 34543 long calls and  closed 96232 long Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17800. Highest Put writing was seen at 17700 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 40500 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 41100 and highest call writing was seen at 41500 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mostly in green today and ...
Read more