19th May' 2022 (Evening)

19th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 20th May at 6.00 AM |

  • Indices opened to an extremely weak handover from the US markets yesterday and also opened in a zone which was not conducive for longs. Hence as I mentioned yesterday, the indices opened below 16000 and then started coming under pressure, giving away everything that was gained on the previous day.
  • We are now standing at a very crucial level. With Nifty already touching the 15670 low yesterday and not having recovered from there, we are now witnessing a serious threat of breaching this level and if it does happen, we risk a thousand point fall.
  • Let us look at the levels :
  • Yesterdays close was extremely weak. Partially fueled by the US futures as well. Yesterday when we closed, US futures was showing 400 point red. We however did not close that bad in US. This is the reason SGX Nifty this morning is 135 points green. Whether our markets would open there, may be yes if the US futures keep showing optimism.
  • Seeing the levels above, we are in the threat of falling till we are below 16000. So shorting may be a good idea till then, with 16100 as a stop loss. Risk reward would be better though if we start seeing the index below 15650. I would not short till then. A long can be taken if the Index starts trading above 16000-16100 with a target of 16400.
  • FII sold today for 4899Cr, the DII could only absorb 3225Cr from this. On the Futures side also, the stance of FII was bearish. They shorted 15000 contracts on Index futures against a long creation of 3290 Contracts. The Options data for yesterday is not that relevant as it was an expiry day.
  • Surprisingly, The Dollar Index has eased substantially to below 103and the yields have also eased slightly. This could be a breather, and a reason for the gap up opening being indicated by SGX today. However, the Dollar Index has started inching up this morning. Lets see if it continues to keep the pressure.
  • The options OI in general indicate a trading range of 16000 to 16500 and Bank Nifty showing a range of 33000 to 35000 levels..
  • The stocks mentioned above show weakness as of now, except Maruti which I feel has shown resilience in the current market move. I have been bullish on this stock for some time. 

1. FII were net sellers for 4899 Cr today, while DII were Buyers for 3225 Cr. A net selling of 1674 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 3290 longs and created 15008 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 96049 short calls and   created 118720 short puts. They also created 94113 long calls and  created 104943 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16000 followed by 15800 and highest OI for CE is at 16000 followed by 16500. Highest Put writing was seen at 15800 and highest call writing was seen at 16000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 32000 followed by 33000 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 34000. Highest Put writing was seen at 33000 and highest call writing was seen at 34000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in red and Europe closed in red

7. US markets trading mixed with Dow in red and Nasdaq flat

8. The breadth of the market was extremely weak today

9. Nifty opened at 15917 and made an intra day high of 15984 and a low of 15775 before closing at 15809 .The range of Nifty for the day was 209 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 33461 and made an intra day high of 33633 and a low of 33180 before closing at 33315 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 453 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 102.835

12. Led by IT and Metals, all sectors closed in red

13. India VIX eased to 24.5575

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.841

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short buildup

17. US Brent oil eased to 110.98

18. USD / INR increased to 77.429


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