25th May' 2022 (Evening)

25th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 9.00 PM  |

  • Opening to a mixed set of global cues, our markets opened gap up, but then got constantly sold off to close at the lower end of the trading range today. While Bank Nifty seems a bit stronger than Nifty, for a good part of the day, finally it also settled lower.
  • On a daily chart, Nifty made bearish candle for a third consecutive day. It has now drifted towards the lower end of the trading range. From a weekly expiry standpoint, picking support at 16000 is absolutely necessary, else a drift towards 15800 is on the cards.
  • Lets look at the levels :
  • The setup of charts is extremely weak and a deeper correction seems imminent. However, the monthly expiry tomorrow, may prevent a deeper fall. Also a strong closing in the US markets today may also provide some support, so keep a watch on the US close and opening tomorrow.
  • HDFC Bank has been supporting the Bank Nifty. While some banking stocks were weak today, HDFC Bank was still strong. Nifty in general is weak. Almost all sectors were severely beaten down today. My warnings of a deeper correction may start playing out soon.
  • FII today sold for 1803 Cr today and DII bought for 2229Cr. With a net buying of 426Cr, markets were supported well. On the FnO side though, the FII created a large number of longs on the Index futures and shorted a small number of contracts. On the options side, though the FII unwound short puts and created some short calls. On the other hand they also unwound a good number of long puts. So their stance is a bit confusing. 
  • Keep a keen eye on the price action tomorrow to gauge the direction of the market. I expect a volatile markets and some sharp movements on either side may kill the expiry traders. So if you are getting into expiry trading, be extremely careful.
  • Dollar Index is above 102 again and the US yields are at 2.751. So a direction less Dollar Index and anxiety in the US markets may give sharp reactions in our market.  Markets may react to FOMC minutes today and will reflect later in the night in US and tomorrow morning for us.
  • The latest numbers in US on PMI and jobs have been showing signs that the rate rise is helping.  So while the markets, are hoping that inflation may get taken care of, However, at the same time, concerns of a recession are haunting then markets.
  • The supports I mentioned earlier were Nasdaq - 11000, DowJones - 29800 and S&P - 3700. We have reached our targets for Nasdaq, however, Dow is still 800 points away and S&P 100 points away. If i go with this, US Markets should actually pick some support from here. Now, we have to see our reaction to this.
  • I hope we should see a relief rally some time, however, concern is that our goal of 14600is still unachieved. This baffles me a lot. Actually moving with the US markets, we should have done that by now, but our indices have brilliantly outperformed the US indices, at least so far.
  • This does not mean I have dropped the idea of 14600, one sharp dip in June may give that and we may then bottom out (Hopefully). :-)

1. FII were net sellers for 1803 Cr today, while DII were Buyers for 2229 Cr. A net buying of 426 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 17112 longs and created 2677 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 43692 short calls and   unwound 20956 short puts. They also unwound 481 long calls and  unwound 2339 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16000 followed by 15800 and highest OI for CE is at 16200 followed by 16400. Highest Put writing was seen at no reasonable level and highest call writing was seen at 16200 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34000 followed by 33500 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 34500. Highest Put writing was seen at 34500 and highest call writing was seen at 34600 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed today and Europe trading in green as of now

7. US markets trading in green as of now

8. The breadth of the market was extremely weak today

9. Nifty opened at 16196 and made an intra day high of 16223 and a low of 16006 before closing at 16025 .The range of Nifty for the day was 217 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 34491 and made an intra day high of 34722 and a low of 34285 before closing at 34339 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 437 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 102.215

12. Led by IT, Pharma and Auto, all sectors closed in red except Bank Nifty

13. India VIX increased to 25.2825

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.751

15. Nifty futures saw short  buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long buildup

17. US Brent oil eased to 111.11

18. USD / INR increased to 77.573


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

4th November' 2022 (Evening)

Image
4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  | Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis. I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels. On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears. We will discuss all this, but before that, levels... From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first...
Read more

28th October' 2022 (Evening)

Image
28th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 9.30 PM on 30th October' 2022   | The last month closed on a high note. Starting weak, the month of October saw decent gains and closed almost at month highs. Market was still strong and on the first day of the current series also, the indices were relatively strong.  #Nifty made 4 consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty made a bearish candle after 3 bullish candles, however still made a higher high and a higher low. Levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty are in a range of 17650 to 17900 and 39825 to 41550 respectively. In this range #BankNifty saw some profit booking on Friday, while #Nifty is yet to test the upper level. I expected #Nifty to test 17900 on Friday, however this did not happen. This may probably get breached in the opening tomorrow. Important to see is that will this trigger a profit booking and a rejection of the level or will the level hold. On Friday, the first tr...
Read more

25th October' 2022 (Evening)

25th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 11.00 PM on 26th October' 2022  | 1. FII were net selling for 247 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 872 Cr. A net buying of 625 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 1390 longs and unwound 17862 shorts on the index futures 3. On the option front FII  unwound 7656 short calls and   unwound 28440 short puts. They also closed 34543 long calls and  closed 96232 long Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17800. Highest Put writing was seen at 17700 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 40500 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 41100 and highest call writing was seen at 41500 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mostly in green today and ...
Read more