29th April' 2022 (Evening)

29th April' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 1st May' 2022 at 7.00 PM |

  • After a surprise given by the market on Thu (Monthly) closing and Fri opening, the indices actually obliged by giving a sharp down turn. My view mentioned on Thu morning was bearish and I expected the indices to close weak on Thu.
  • The indices actually closed strong and then also opened strong on Fri (also the first day of the May series). However in the second half of Fri trading, markets witnessed a sharp selling. The indices lost heavily. Nifty lost 320 points and Bank Nifty lost 700 points in second half.
  • Lately our markets have been sensing the sentiments in US. On Fri only the Indian indices lost ground. Most of the Asian markets closed in green and Europe also closed in green. US closed deep in red on Friday. Nasdaq losing more than 4% and Dow losing 2.7%.  Global markets would not react to this on Monday. China however is closed for Mon to Wed. 
  • Lets look at the levels first and then we will discuss further :
  • Our Indices are at critical levels at the moment. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty are close to their first support level. With the kind of closing in US, I expect our indices to open below these levels. Nifty may open below 17000 and Bank Nifty may open below 35900.
  • Now important watch would be the opening of US futures tomorrow. If the US futures open strong, we may see some base emerging at these levels for us. However, if the US futures open in red, we may see a deeper sell off and we may test our second support levels. 
  • At the moment DOW and Nasdaq are just above very critical supports. Dow if breaches 32300 levels, we may see a sharp movement to 29800 levels, where some major support may rise. Nasdaq on the other hand lost one important support and now heading towards 12600. If this is not held, we may see 12200. 
  • Now important is what does this mean for us. It means, 30500 for Bank Nifty and 14200 for Nifty. So be prepared for a real roller coaster ride from here. 
  • FII on Friday sold for 3600Cr and the DII bought for 3490 Cr. DII have been buying at dips and supporting the markets. Now, whether they will have the capacity to absorb this DIP is to be seen. Our resilience will now be put to test.
  • FII on the futures and options side have an undecided approach. They are bullish on Index futures and bearish on the index options.
  • Options OI in general show a range of 17000 to 17100 on Nifty and 35500 to 37000 on Bank Nifty. Unless driven by a major news event, I suspect this range could be breached on the lower side.
  • Dollar Index is at 103.23 and that is the real concern from here. With extremely high expectations of FED making a rise of 0.5% and may be even some more rises, the Dollar Index may touch its last high of 104 and a breach above that could actually catastrophe the global equities. So guys be lean and careful of your positions.
  • Watch for these event globally : Mon - Garman and US mfg PMI, Tue - British PMI and US payrolls data, Wed - US non farm employment data, non mfg PMI and FED interest rate decision, Thu - British composite and services PMI, British Inflation data and Interest rate decision, US jobs data, Fri - US non farm payrolls and unemployment rate. 
  • Indian markets would be closed on Tue, so this would add to volatility. Chinese markets closed from Mon - Wed on account of labor day.
  • Wish you happy trading, guys......

1. FII were net sellers for 3648 Cr today, while DII were Buyers for 3490 Cr. A net selling of 158 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 1764 longs and unwound 3193 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 146175 short calls and   created 50251 short puts. They also created 203564 long calls and  created 113066 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17000 followed by 17100 and highest OI for CE is at 17300 followed by 17500. Highest Put writing was seen at 17100 and highest call writing was seen at 17100 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 35500 followed by 36000 and highest OI for CE is at 37000 followed by 36500. Highest Put writing was seen at 36500 and highest call writing was seen at 36500 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in green and Europe also closed in green.

7. US markets closed deep in red on Friday

8. The breadth of the market was extremely weak today

9. Nifty opened at 17329 and made an intra day high of 17377 and a low of 17053 before closing at 17102 .The range of Nifty for the day was 324 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 36474 and made an intra day high of 36718 and a low of 35978 before closing at 36088 .The range of Nifty for the day was 740 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 103.23

12. All sectors closed in red on Friday. PSU Banks, Energy were hit harder than others

13. India VIX increased to 19.4150

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.938

15. Nifty futures saw long unwinding

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long unwinding

17. US Brent oil eased to 106.08

18. USD / INR eased to 76.523


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