EquityCompound2

17th February' 2023  (Evening)  --  | Written at 7.00 PM on 19th February' 2023  | Markets on Friday were generally weak and most of the indices were weak. This week being the last week of this trading month and also loaded with multiple important events globally led to some caution amongst global investing community. In the Indian markets, Nifty was strong on weekly chart and weak on the daily chart. On the daily chart it made a strong bearish candle, though staying above an important level. This was back to back the second day of losses on Nifty. Nifty Supports :- First supp - 17880 / Second supp - 17725 / Strong supp - 17350 Nifty Resistance :- First Res - 18050 / Second Res - 18150 / Strong Res - 18200 Bank Nifty on the other hand was weak and made a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. On the daily chart it broke down on an important level and now shows the following levels.. BankNifty Supports :- First supp - 40875 / Second supp - 40600 / Strong supp -...

27th January' 2023 (Evening)  --  | Written at 1.30 PM on 29th January' 2023  | #Nifty and many other stocks, specially the banking stocks got severe beating on Friday. The #HindenburgReport created havoc on the #Adani shares. The banking stocks followed as there were concerns related to high leverage of the #Adani group and exposure these banks have towards them. #BankNifty was the first one to get screwed. #SBIN and #ICICIBank were the ones that got hit badly. While #HDFCBank, #KotakBank also lost.  #Nifty made a strong bearish candle on the daily chart. This led to it breaching some important levels on #Nifty. 17725 was one such level and in fact at one point, #Nifty also breached 17500.  While #Nifty did make some recovery in the last hour or so, i feel it is not out of clouds.  I somehow have a hunch that #Nifty lost some important levels due to #BankNifty (Of course) and valuations. A reason was being sought by the Indices to correct a bit. ...

4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  | Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis. I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels. On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears. We will discuss all this, but before that, levels... From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first...

28th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 9.30 PM on 30th October' 2022   | The last month closed on a high note. Starting weak, the month of October saw decent gains and closed almost at month highs. Market was still strong and on the first day of the current series also, the indices were relatively strong.  #Nifty made 4 consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty made a bearish candle after 3 bullish candles, however still made a higher high and a higher low. Levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty are in a range of 17650 to 17900 and 39825 to 41550 respectively. In this range #BankNifty saw some profit booking on Friday, while #Nifty is yet to test the upper level. I expected #Nifty to test 17900 on Friday, however this did not happen. This may probably get breached in the opening tomorrow. Important to see is that will this trigger a profit booking and a rejection of the level or will the level hold. On Friday, the first tr...

18th October' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 11.00 PM  | I mentioned in my last notes, in spite of the fall on Friday, US markets may drive a positive sentiment. This subject to the critical levels being held. I also suggested to watch this on the US futures. It was beautifully respected on Monday. Tuesday was a follow up. Taking cues from the US action, #DII today also went on a buying spree and see the result. The #FII were forced to cover more shorts.- The larger question is, now what? Before that, the levels :- After the move on Monday, the Indian Indices opened gap up today and also traded in a range. While this forced the #FII to cover shorts, we also saw some resistance at today's highs.  Both the Indices on the futures side, saw short covering. Fresh longs are yet to be seen. Also the Indices have left a gap, this needs to be plugged. Also after a strong move from Friday till Monday, some traders may like to book some profits. We may thus see a bit of...

14th October' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written on 16th October' 2022 at 9.30 PM  | Last week was an interesting one. US saw a new #Inflation level. Both #DowJones and #Nasdaq saw interestingly low levels. We will discuss this below... On Friday, both #Nifty and #BankNifty made strong bullish candles on the daily chart. However, the levels would be interesting to see : Following the move on #DowJones and #Nasdaq on Thursday night, Our Indices made a strong rebound on Friday. The Indices opened with a huge bang, However, #Nifty could not hold these levels. #BankNifty though could hold ground and kept its lows. The Index futures positions also show a short covering on #Nifty and long buildup on #BankNifty. This is good as #BankNifty is pulling some support.  As mentioned on my earlier notes, our Indices in near term are trying to take some cues from the US markets. So we may do this tomorrow as well. #Nasdaq and #DowJones both fell on Friday. However, I feel that in ...

12th October' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 13th October' 2022 at 6.00 AM | Markets today seemed to be coping strong as compared to the previous days. After opening flattish, the indices consolidated and made some gains through the day to close strong. Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made strong bullish candles on the daily chart, though these were still like inside candles as compared to the previous day. The levels now look like : The consolidation yesterday helped elevate the first support a bit higher. While I do not hope so, watch for a breach of this support. If this support is held we may see some more buildup. A move towards the first resistance could very well be seen.  Being an expiry day today, watch for some sharp intraday moves  as the previous days were volatile and may result into some expiry related adjustments. #FII yesterday did not sell much. Their selling was limited to 560Cr or so. They however, build some long positions in Index futures at the sam...

11th October' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written on 11th October' 2022 at 11.00 PM  | Markets today opened flattish with #Nifty in green and #BankNifty in red, made some gains and then eventually suffered a sharp sell off towards the end of the day. #Nifty closed 1.5% in red and #BankNifty closed half a percent in red.  Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made strong bearish candles on the daily chart. With #Nifty actually making a bearish engulfing candle. Let us now look at levels : As mentioned yesterday, the tussle between #FII and #DII is extremely strong. A strong selling by #FII is been bought by the #DII. This tussle is actually leading to ferocious movement of Indices in a range. Indices today again inched lower towards the lower end of this range.  #FII sold for 4600 Cr today and #DII bought for 2430Cr. I suspect this selling came towards the end of the day and probably also aggravated due to the Bank of England statement on UK financial stability. A buying su...

10th October' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 11th October' 2022 at 6.00 AM | Following a sharp selling in US on Friday, our indices opened gap down yesterday. A gradual recovery was seen through the day, and the indices saw a close near the day highs. Both #Nifty and #BankNIfty made strong bullish candles through the day, with small upper and lower shadows. The levels indicated are as below : As seen through past some days, a strong #DII support comes in at lower levels of around16900 or so. Yesterday also the lower levels (17065) saw a strong buying from the #DII and the indices recovered from there. The #FII continue to sell in cash. The selling from their side was again 2000Cr plus yesterday. The #DII bough almost all of this. The determination from the #DII side is high, to protect the bottom. The larger question that looms is how much more liquidity still remains on the institutional side. While the #DOllarIndex eased a bit over the past few days, it saw some more stren...

30th September' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 8.30 PM on 2nd October' 2022 | page 1/2 On Friday a combination of Some supporting cues globally, an expected MPC outcome and oversold domestic markets led to a short squeeze resulting in  #Nifty and #BankNifty ending up 1.6% and 2.6% respectively. Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made bullish engulfing candles on the daily chart, an outcome of a spectacular one sided intraday rally. The levels now look something like below .. Levels : Starting from last week Monday, when the markets opened gap down, the Indices have been moving in a range. Friday literally covering all the losses from Monday till Thu. I personally feel that the rally on Friday has confirmed two points. A conviction from the DII to buy the markets at 16800 or so and also that the range is here to play. A strong move will be seen only if this range is breached on either side. This range seems to be 16725 to 17200 for #Nifty and 37300 to 38825 for #BankNifty....

27th September' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 6.00 AM on 28th Sep' 2022 | Following some stability emerging in US on Mon, our Indices opened flattish on Tue, hoping for a recovery. However, after showing a flash of some green in the morning, the Indices could never capitalize on it through the day. While #Nifty kept its ground, #BankNifty actually gave way and slipped to a negative close. Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made bearish candles on the daily chart. While #Nifty was closer to the range of Monday, #BankNifty clearly made a candle with a lower low and a lower high compared to Monday. Levels : The levels above indicate a support coming in at 16900 levels for #Nifty and 38150 for #BankNifty. Bulls yesterday defended their support at this level, While on #BankNifty this support may get tested soon.  It is extremely important for these levels to hold as they may other vise they trigger a deeper correction to the levels of Jun lows. While all this may not happen in one ...

23rd September' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 4.00 PM on 25th September' 2022  | Page 1/2 After a relatively resilient first day, the second day turned out to be weak with people reluctant to put in money. The global weakness took its toll on us and a sharp selling was seen on Friday. There was no opportunity to by at any of the time intervals.  Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made strong bearish candles on the daily chart. While #Nifty closed staring at the 29th August Low the recent gains made by #BankNifty gives some space to #BankNifty from that low. Levels as we see now : As seen on the levels table above, we are now staring at the Aug lows and these levels have to hold, to prevent a deeper correction from these levels. We have been resilient recently, but then tiding against the winds for sustained periods may not be easy. The US markets are now lower than the low they made on 13th Jun. This was the time when we made our low in Jun. If you have ...

 22nd September' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 6.00 AM on 23rd September' 2022  | Responding the the weak global cues on Thursday morning, The Indian markets feathered the storm well. When most of the global Indices were weak, we could come out without major breakdowns. The problem is not over though. Both #NIfty and #BankNifty opened gap down and struggled through the day. They both found support towards the lower end of the day range and faced pressure towards the higher end of the range. On the daily chart, They both made a candle with a decent upper and lower shadow, indicating the above behavior. Levels : I had mentioned earlier that the support levels are deeper and markets are expected to consolidate above these levels. This has coincided with the global ruckus and our Indices are now at these important levels. The risk reward becomes more favorable at 17425 and 40275 though.  Based only on price action, If a long trade is to be taken they can be...

20th September' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 6.00 AM on 21st September' 2022  | Following the strong close in US the previous day, markets were globally positive and the Indian Indices also had a strong sentiment. Opening gap up the indices gained traction for some time, only to face resistance at highs. While there was not a a heavy selling form there, they did cool off a bit, Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made bullish candles, though with a reasonable upper shadow indicating resistance at the highs. Levels  The gap up yesterday has left an opportunity for this to be filled and hence the first supports are a bit deeper. The risk reward for fresh longs from this level is a bit unfavorable. Markets though continue to be strong till they are holding the support levels mentioned above. So a dip till these levels would be healthy for our indices. Since I see a decent opportunity of this gap fill and the global cues today could be somber, markets may consolidate in...

19th September' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 6.00 AM on 20th September' 2022 | Indian markets yesterday opened flat and faced some selling pressure initially. The dip though got quickly bought and markets stabilized to rise through the day. Both #Nifty and #BanNifty made decent intraday highs before #BankNifty cooling off a bit, while #Nifty was still standing strong. #Nifty particularly got the strength from FMCG, Auto and some financial stocks like #BajFinance and #BajajFinSrv. Let us look at the levels While on Medium time frame #BankNIfty is strong, in extreme short term #Nifty may outperform #BankNifty. However, #NIfty is a mixed bag at the moment and would need #Reliance and #NiftyIT to contribute for this. #FII action yesterday was strong. They bought for 300Cr in cash and were forced to unwind a ot of shorts on Index futures. Repeated shorting from their side and failing to get a follow through indicates a a strong resilience of our markets from domestic participan...

30th Aug' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 8.15 PM on 31st Aug' 2022  | After the anxiety on Monday, Globally the sentiment was a bit more confident and that boosted the morale of Indian Investors. Buying was seen across the board and the Indices made stellar gains in a single trading day. #Nifty gained 446 points to close at 17759 and #BankNifty gained 1260 points to close at 39536. With this both #Nifty and #BankNifty closed above the highs of Thu (monthly closing). This may be seen as a sign of strength. However, lets look at the levels first and then we will discuss further If we look closely at the levels we find the first support levels are now a bit far from the spot price on both #Nifty and #BankNifty. This is due to heavy buying seen on Tuesday. The first levels are now close and the markets have seen a sharp rise on Tue. I would expect the Indices to consolidate at the current level now. With some short term traders taking some profits out, Both #Nifty and...

26th Aug' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written on 28th Aug' 2022 at 1.30 PM  | Page 1/2 After a fag end cool down on Thursday, Markets opened gap up on Friday. Made some gains from there, however got sold off and slipped to close at the Day lows. While #Nifty saw a continuous slide, #BankNifty saw some support at the lower end and traded in a range. Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made inside candles on a daily chart. The change in behavior I observe is that after the follow up selling on Monday, for two days ie Tue and Wed, the markets saw a gap down opening and then buying coming in to support at these lows, with market closing at day highs. On Thu and Fri the Indices saw gap up opening and then selling coming in at some time to close at day lows.  So a bit of change in the behavior and this is driven from the #FII changing their stance in the markets. However, as in the past, the #DII came to rescue and supported the markets. Levels : #FII on Thu closed a lo...

24th Aug' 2022 (Evening)    --   |  Written at 9.00 PM  | Markets opened gap down today as well. The intraday pattern was a bit similar to yesterday, with some quick buying, then selling and the dip getting bought again to close at the day highs.  Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made strong bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty though seems to be relatively stronger than #Nifty. The price action in the second half of the day convincingly took off the first resistance mentioned yesterday. #Nifty on the other hand is still battling the same. However, both #Nifty and #BankNifty are staring at this level as the barrier between the recent high and the current level. The demand that comes in at the opening levels has been pretty strong.  Levels : Analyzing the charts and the price action today, I get the feeling that both the Indices made an attempt to take down the resistance mentioned yesterday. First attempt failed and the second attempt of #Bank...

24th Aug' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 12.30 AM  | As mentioned yesterday, the indices opened gap down. However, from then a sharp recovery was seen, almost up to the resistances I mentioned yesterday. Some intraday profit booking was seen from this point and then this dip was bought and the Indices closed at the high end of the trading range for the day. While #Nifty closed at the first high made, #BankNifty closed took down the day high made and closed above the first high. So, while both the Indices mad a bullish candle for the day, they actually made a daily candle with a lower high and a lower low as compared with yesterday. The buying interest seen at the opening lows today indicate a strong demand at that levels. Also the #FII ended up buying today. So let us look at the levels first Looking closely at the levels, after the recovery today, the spot price is now close to their first resistance for both #Nifty and #BankNifty. Important to see is that if the...