5th May' 2022 (Evening)

5th May' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.00 PM |

  • Markets opened strong after a US relief rally today. Counterintuitively, I believe being a weekly expiry today, there was some calm in the market. Though the indices lost a good amount of ground from their day highs and also closed at the day lows.
  • The US Futures started showing red quite early in the day. Normally, our markets follow this strongly, our fall was not that steep. On any other day, this fall could have got aggravated after it came below yesterday's close.
  • Lets look at the levels first....
  • Now look closely at the levels. Nifty closed close to the previous day, after opening gap up and rising for some level. Almost same for Bank Nifty. The daily chart for both shows a bearish candle with a reasonable upper wick. This is indicative of selling at higher levels. Also both Nifty and Bank Nifty made inside candles today, taking them out of that over sold zone in some way. 
  • Fresh shorting on the indices is visible. While the FII today covered some shorts, I am not sure if they would short the indices again tomorrow.
  • US markets are going through a blood bath as of now. Dow has lost more than 1000 days and Nasdaq has lost 600 points as of now. Please do read my notes of 1st May. I mentioned that we may see a global ruckus and prepared for a roller coaster ride. Be careful guys, while these days are opportunities to make money, they could also lead one into serious trouble.
  • If the US markets do not see a reasonable recovery before closing today, we may see a big gap down opening tomorrow, below our second supports and that may put tremendous pressure on our indices.
  • Dollar Index is now at 103.8, marginally below its major resistance of 104. If 104 is taken down, we are in for a major trouble. Something, to really worry on equities. 
  • The options OI today show heavy call OI buildup at 17000 for Nifty and 36000 for Bank Nifty. These levels could prove to be major resistance from here. So, some interesting times ahead.
  • S&P VIX is at 30.5 and has potential to move up further. Please do keep an eye on our VIX as well. It could well be an indicator of the pain ahead. 
  • Oil prices are again nearing 110 USD and that would add to our worries. RBI increase in Repo rate and CRR would also affect the liquidity in our markets. Lets see how this goes. With expectations of further rate rise from RBI, the worries are here to stay.
  • British PMI data was positive today and US jobless data is poor. Though the Bank of England mentioning that the British economy may compress nest year, is a cause of concern as well.
  • Wish you luck guys....

1. FII were net sellers for 2074 Cr today, while DII were Buyers for 2229 Cr. A net buying of 155 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 1727 longs and unwound 10470 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 142759 short calls and   unwound 54833 short puts. They also created 144634 long calls and  created 115919 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16000 followed by 16500 and highest OI for CE is at 17000 followed by 17500. Highest Put writing was seen at 16000 and highest call writing was seen at 17000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34000 followed by 35000 and highest OI for CE is at 36000 followed by 36500. Highest Put writing was seen at 35000 and highest call writing was seen at 36000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in red and Europe trading mostly in red

7. US markets trading deep in red as of now.

8. The breadth of the market was weak today

9. Nifty opened at 16854 and made an intra day high of 16945 and a low of 16651 before closing at 16682 .The range of Nifty for the day was 294 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35705 and made an intra day high of 35934 and a low of 35133 before closing at 35232 .The range of Nifty for the day was 801 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 103.793

12. IT made some decent gains today, supported by Metals, Auto and Energy. All other sectors were weak.

13. India VIX increased to 20.2925

14. US 10Y yields are at 3.092

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long unwinding

17. US Brent oil eased to 109.96

18. USD / INR eased to 76.508


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