EquityCompound2

 26th Feb'2021 (Evening) On 25th evening, i was concerned about the markets on Friday. Mentioned this as a red flag in my analysis on Thursday. Honestly, did not expect a fall like it was on Friday. Compared with Thursday close, Nifty, at one point intraday was 630 points down and BankNifty was 1891 points down. The fall on thursday was in itself an indicator though as Nifty saw a fall of 100 points and BankNifty saw a fall of 700 points from thursday high to thrusday close. Well if we look at the last couple of days, BankNifty has seen swings of 2000 points. I doubt if somebody would have caught these swing levels. With these corrections Nifty stands close to its 50DEMA of 14396. Historically, Nifty as been taking support at 50DEMA.  The options data indicates a support at 14800 for Nifty as this is where the highest OI sits and also where maximum put writing was done. Nifty range seems to be 14800-15000. For BankNifty this levels stands at 34000-36000. Yields have eased out ...

25th Feb'2021 (Evening) What a dramatic end to a dramatic week. A ballistic volatile week, end with huge volatility. Extremely difficult to trade. Imagine the 36500 CE of Bank Nifty sold at INR 29 yesterday morning, was trading at 600 today morning.  Bank Nifty shot up more than 2200 points from yesterdays low to todays high. And we had the trading glitch in between. If one has come out unhurt this week, he should consider himself blessed. I am one such soul :-) FII unwound more than 23000 shorts, though they have not created meaningful longs. They also bought for small in cash. A good sign. Next weeks options data indicates support at 15000 for Nifty and 36000 for Bank Nifty. On Nifty, A dip towards 14900-14950 should be a buying opportunity, a deeper cut could be a red flag for short term.  On Bank Nifty the view is bullish after the two days action. Lets see... Some red flags coming in from US are a bit of concern. They US markets are trading in red.  US 10 year yields...

23rd Feb'2021 (Evening) The FII selling aggravated today. Selling more than 1500Cr. On the futures though the activity was minimal. They hardly created any longs and shorted 1707 contracts. Options data indicates a slight support from here. As mentioned yesterday, i was not expecting a deep fall from this level. My view remains the same as of now. Though I reserve the right to be wrong :-). Options indicate a range of 14500-15000 for Nifty and 35000-36000 on Bank Nifty as of now.  Nifty did not break yesterdays low and that is a good sign. Bank Nifty though did break the low and closed with a 140 point loss. Bank Nifty is at its 20DEMA and may pick support from here. If broken then the next supports are deeper from here. Do not expect that to happen though. Lets see. The market breadth was positive today, again a good sign. Financials and Pharma were majorly the losers today.  The futures picked up on some premium today, indicating support. All in all I have a positive bias fo...

 22nd Feb'2021 (Evening) As mentioned yesterday, markets were extremely volatile today. VIX shot up to 25 plus today. options premium also rose as a result. Indices saw heavy selling today. FII sold for 900Cr and DII also sold for a similar figure. Total selling of 1800 Cr sent indices tanking down.  On the Index futures though, do not see a heavy shorting from FII side. rather some longs were created and some shorts unwound. So o not really expect a deep correction from here. Well, nothing is right in markets though. US yields have eased out a bit and the Dollar index has also come down. Both are good signs for equity. DJI has slowly slid into green as i am writing this. Yesterdays range indicated by the options was broken on the lower side. Nifty now indicates a range of 14500-15000. Bank Nifty indicates range of 34500 -35500.  Next Nifty support at 14574 and Bank Nifty support at 34343. 1. FII were net sellers for 893 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 919 Cr. A net ...

19th Feb'2021 (Evening) Friday saw a follow up of weakness in the markets. Both the indices Nifty and Bank Nifty closed in red for the fourth consecutive day. Though the markets covered by the end of the day, they breached important supports intraday. Nifty support of 14977 and Bank Nifty support at 36000 were breached. I mentioned these as important support for the past couple of days. While Nifty recovered and closed above 14977, bank Nifty took support at the next lower support of 35500 (35428 to be precise)  and closed at 35841. FII did not buy much on Friday and DII sold as usual. This led to the correction. FII buying was just 118Cr and has been shrinking for some time. Lets see on Monday. Options data is showing a wide range of 14000 to 16000 for February. The options writing suggests a close range of 14700 to 15300 on Nifty. Bank Nifty options indicate a wide range of 35000 to 37000. The writing indicates a close range of 35500 to 36000.  Being the monthly expiry, we m...

17th Feb'2021 (Evening) Markets continued today with the weakness from yesterday. The weak global cues also fueled the weakness. The selling aggravated later and both Nifty and BankNifty closed with losses. Nifty now has immediate support at 15080 and has resistance at 15300. This could well be the range for tomorrow. A breach of 15080 will open it to the next support of 14977. Since, the options data is also suggesting a range of 15000 to 15300. This could be a trading range for tomorrow.  Bank Nifty is now close to a support of 36765.  A breach of this support could make the index weak in short term and may make a volatile move downside. A minor support at 36500 is seen, else 36000 and 35500. From an expiry standpoint, I feel watch for the support at 36765. If respected, sell both calls and puts, else selling calls on the higher side is a better strategy. Watch for the opening action tomorrow. Globally markets are a bit weak due to the US yields rising and most of the market...

16th Feb'2021 (Evening) Nifty opened gap up but quickly saw profit booking and started sliding. Selling was majorly driven by Banking and IT stocks. Bank Nifty followed a similar trajectory, opened strong, slipped and then took support to recover some losses, but closed with some losses. DII sold in the morning, after the market opened gap up, FII buying came in late and supported the market. Nifty picked up support at 15243 and BankNifty picked support at 36765. If the rise continues tomorrow, these levels could be intermediate supports.  The range of the indices as per the options data is like for Nifty 15000-15500 and for bank Nifty it is 35000-38000. A close range of 15300-15400 for Nifty and 36000-37500 for Bank Nifty can be looked at for aggressive trades. While the markets are very strong, a risk of some selling always exists at these levels, so an eye on lower levels would be helpful. Unless one has a strong capacity to manage trades, aggressive trades should be avoided. 1....

15th Feb'2021 (Evening) What a day it was today. Markets opened strong and then never looked back. As mentioned yesterday, Bank Nifty and financials are strong. Bank Nifty made a strong gain of 1197 points. Other financials leaders I mentioned yesterday, also made strong gains. BajFinance and BajFinSv made decent gains. VIX is down and FII are back with a bang after the weekend. Global Cues supported and indices made a ATH breaking the range I was mentioning for some time. BankNifty made new highs and Nifty also closed above 15300. The range of the indices has expanded towards the top. Nifty has strong support now at 15200 and BankNifty should now take support at 36500. Though the options data indicate a wider range of 15000-15500 and 35000-39000. Need to see the follow through tomorrow. As of now shorting is not recommended. With two major markets closed (US and China). There would not be any handover from the mother markets tomorrow. 1. FII were net buyers for 1234 Cr today, whil...

12th Feb'2021 (Evening) Markets continued to consolidate within the range mentioned earlier. Nifty 14977 to 15257 and BankNifty between 35428 to 36615. Though Bank Nifty was strong and closed with a bullish candle for the day, while Nifty formed a small Doji kind of bearish candle. On weekly TF both Nifty and Bank Nifty formed Doji candles. The range of Nifty and BankNifty is intact. Further trends would only evolve once this range is broken. On the upside, Nifty may see a strong resistance around 15500-15600 zone, on the down side support expected at 14600 levels. While the MTD FII inflows is already higher than Jan, they sold on Friday (though negligible). The cash inflow was going down for a few days and now negative. They also created decent shorts on the index futures. I presume this has been on Nifty. I expect the market to consolidate within the range given above. Nifty may dip a bit before rising further and making a move towards 15500, so keeping a watch on the lower side ...

11th Feb'2021 (Evening) BankNifty played to script today. Made some very good profit. Nifty skewed slightly from the script, majorly because Reliance moved. Reliance rose 4% and helped Nifty's elevation. The FII inflows continue, thought the number is going down from last few days.  VIX has eased, indicating a slight risk aversion. US markets are trading in negative as of now.  The upside for our markets is intact as of now. Nifty 15255 and Bank Nifty 36623. Expect our markets to broadly follow the global cues tomorrow. The OI indicates a broad range of 35000 to 36000 on Bank Nifty. on Nifty this range could be 15000-15255. Need to watch tomorrow's action for this week.  Though broadly I feel the market to consolidate in a range for tomorrow. A followup on Reliance is critical for a further upmove. Need a consolidated move on the IT stocks and Reliance for the index to breach the high and move towards 15500. 1. FII were net Buyers for 944 Cr today, while DII were sellers ...

10th Feb'2021 (Evening) Nifty opened marginally in green, made a slight up move and then started seeing selling. Though it recovered later, saw some selling again, only to recover and close flat. Creating a hanging man kind of candle. Though intraday it breached the support of 15041, it closed above this support level. Bank Nifty opened marginally in red, saw a rise and then profit booking, recovered and then suffered a second bout of selling, again to recover slightly. It closed with a loss of 273 points. Making a bearish candle with a long lower whack. As mentioned yesterday, BankNifty seems to be weaker than Nifty. New sectors of IT and Pharma have seen a rise over the last 2 days. If IT sees some selling tomorrow, Nifty may see some more weakness. Reliance if picks up, can support Nifty though. Till Nifty is closing above 15041, a trend reversal is not to be suspected. Todays, intraday low was 14977, so that also becomes an important level to watch for tomorrow and day after. B...

9th Feb'2021 (Evening) Uncertainty prevailed in the markets today. After opening gap up, Nifty was stronger than BankNifty. Though later BN caught up and also made a big intraday move, finally both indices saw some selling and closed small bearish candles.  While Nifty closed marginally in red, BankNifty closed marginally in green. VIX increased further to 24.27. Market breadth is weak, uncertainty on price movements are some symptoms of the rally losing momentum. We may see some consolidation here. Though a breach of 15000 may intensify the selling. As mentioned earlier also, Bank Nifty for the last two days, has been trading within the trading range of Fridays candle. A breach of this candle on either side, would decide the direction of movement. BN has been seeing selling at 36500 and support at 35600. I think Nifty has support at 15041 and BankNifty has some support at 35545. Be careful if we see these levels breached. On the higher side 15256 and 36615 are the critical levels ...

8th Feb'2021 (Evening) My sense of expecting some more correction went wrong today (atleast on Nifty).  Markets opened gap up today, while Nifty maintained its strength, BankNifty saw some profit booking after hitting a high of 36466. While Nifty made a strong bullish candle after opening gap up, Bank Nifty made a bearish candle and made an inside candle compared to Friday.  While the range of Nifty was maintained, Bank Nifty range was constrained today. As mentioned earlier, Nifty opened gates for 15200 and was close to hitting it today. A followup strength tomorrow may help hit the same. Bank Nifty saw selling at the day high and closed near its day low. It hasn't broken Fridays low, so need to watch a breakout below Fridays low of  35545 or Fridays high of 36615.  FII continued to put in money today. They also created some small longs and unwound some shorts on the index futures. Some hedging was seen on the put side. They bought 23000 puts. Nifty range seems to b...

5th Feb'2021 (Evening) Both Nifty and Bank Nifty opened on a strong note and continued to climb up. Nifty touched 1500 and then profit booking started. Bank Nifty was at one point of time, 1000 point in green. Profit booking was heavy as expected and closed after minor gains at lower levels. Nifty closed forming a Doji candle and Bank Nifty created a candle with a short body and a large upper whack. This indicates a bit of weakness as of now. DII brought in closeto 1500 Cr and an equal amount was sold by the DII. FII also unwound some longs and created some shorts. FII have been changing their position on the futures for a couple of days now. So some profit booking was expected. Some happened on Friday. Lets see if some more comes on Monday. The range of market has widened substantially. VIX has risen again. So it is getting a bit difficult to gauge the movement. Nifty is indicating a movement from 14000 to 16000 and Bank Nifty is indicating a range of 34000 to 38000. Expecting som...

4th Feb'2021 (Evening)  Markets opened and Bank Nifty immediately saw selling. A fall of 300 points and 500 point lower than previous close. Buying then came in and lifted it to 35413, before closing at 35344. A movement of approx 1200 point on an expiry day.  Buying was seen specially in SBIN (5000Cr), ITC (2400Cr), BajFinance (2900Cr). Also TataMotors, Bharati were very active stocks today. FII bought for 1936 Cr today, but they also created 11680 shorts and unwound 2556 longs in futures. Thus creating some hedges. Market as of now seems to be in the grip of bulls. Both Nifty and BankNifty closed at high points of the day. Market range seems to have widened at the moment.  While Nifty still has a strong resistance at 15000, BankNifty has broken 35000.  Expect Nifty to trade between 14500 and 15000 and BankNifty to trade between 34000 and 35500. 1. FII were net Buyers for 1936 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 768 Cr. A net Buying of 1168 Cr from the institutiona...

2nd Feb'2021 (Evening) After a stellar performance yesterday, markets continued their move after a gap up opening. Halting at 14731 and saw some profit booking, pulling Nifty down to 14469, buying pushed the index up again to close at 14647. Index faced stiff resistance at the day's high today. Though, it also did not budge to fall. Throughout the day, The first hour candle was not breached on either side. So now a move above 14731 or below 14469 would decide the short term direction from here. Dollar Index has risen above 91 after a long time, and is seeing a higher high and a higher low. Next level could be 92 for this. A move above 92 has to be watched.  Aggressive put writing was seen at 14500 levels and call writing at 14700 levels. I feel these are critical levels for the current week.  Seeing FII back in cash market was a pleasant sight, with a healthy cash buying of 6000 Cr. Thought they have created some hedges via the futures. Market top from here seems to be capped....

1st Feb' 2021 (Evening) What a day it was. The day started on a positive note, correct slightly and then never looked back. Nifty moved 650 points and Bank Nifty 2500 points. A record move on a budget day. As mentioned yesterday, Bank Nifty outperformed Nifty and became a star of the day. A solid 8% move in a single day. Banking, financials, Realty, Auto, Metals were the leaders amongst almost the entire market. Investors celebrated the announcements made, especially a 35% increase in capital expenditure. In financials, privatization proposal of two public sector banks in addition to IDBI Bank and one general insurance company and hiking foreign holding limit in insurance sector from 49% to 74% are big positives. FII changed their stand in FnO. Created 12k longs and unwound 15k shorts. Shorted 2 puts for every call.  Options OI is a bit scattered though, probably due to a huge intraday move. So the options data needs time to stabilize. The cash market though did not immediatel...