26th Feb'2021 (Evening)

 26th Feb'2021 (Evening)

  • On 25th evening, i was concerned about the markets on Friday. Mentioned this as a red flag in my analysis on Thursday. Honestly, did not expect a fall like it was on Friday. Compared with Thursday close, Nifty, at one point intraday was 630 points down and BankNifty was 1891 points down.
  • The fall on thursday was in itself an indicator though as Nifty saw a fall of 100 points and BankNifty saw a fall of 700 points from thursday high to thrusday close.
  • Well if we look at the last couple of days, BankNifty has seen swings of 2000 points. I doubt if somebody would have caught these swing levels.
  • With these corrections Nifty stands close to its 50DEMA of 14396. Historically, Nifty as been taking support at 50DEMA. 
  • The options data indicates a support at 14800 for Nifty as this is where the highest OI sits and also where maximum put writing was done. Nifty range seems to be 14800-15000.
  • For BankNifty this levels stands at 34000-36000.
  • Yields have eased out a bit, so the knee jerk reaction should be kind of over. The INR has depreciated a bit on the last day of the week, this could be due to some money being moved out. The currency weakness if continued may indicate a equity weakness, it may actually support the economy from an export standpoint. 
  • While I expect the market to open in green and take support from here. Coincidentally after Jan end correction, the low of Nifty as it opened gap up on 2nd Feb was 14469. This was also the low for Friday. I would keep this as a benchmark for immediate strength of the market. If this is breached tomorrow, we may see a move towards 14396.

1. FII were net sellers for 8295 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 1499 Cr. A net selling of 6796 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 9597 longs and created 25273 shorts on the indices

3. On the option front FII  sold 59504 calls and   sold 29191 puts. They also bought 56902 calls and  bought 61674 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 14800 followed by 14000 and highest OI for CE is at 15000 followed by 14800. Highest Put writing was seen at 14800 and highest call writing was seen at 15000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34000 followed by 34500 and highest OI for CE is at 37000 followed by 36000. Highest Put writing was seen at 34000 and highest call writing was seen at 36000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in red and European markets also closed in red

7. US markets closed mixed. Dow closed in red and Nasdaq in green

8. The breadth of the market was extremely weak today. All Niftry 50 stocks closed in red. A few small and miod caps were in green.

9. Nifty opened at 14888 and made an intra day high of 14919 and a low of 14467 before closing at 14529 .The range of Nifty for the day was 452 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35806 and made an intra day high of 35902 and a low of 34658 before closing at 34803 .The range of Nifty for the day was 1244 points.

11. UD Dollar Index is trading at 90.93

12. All sectors faced a fall today. Banking stocks were leaders in the fall

13. India VIX increased to 28.14

14. US 10Y yields shot up to 1.407


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