20th September' 2022 (Evening)

20th September' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 6.00 AM on 21st September' 2022  |

  • Following the strong close in US the previous day, markets were globally positive and the Indian Indices also had a strong sentiment. Opening gap up the indices gained traction for some time, only to face resistance at highs. While there was not a a heavy selling form there, they did cool off a bit,
  • Both #Nifty and #BankNifty made bullish candles, though with a reasonable upper shadow indicating resistance at the highs.
  • Levels 
  • The gap up yesterday has left an opportunity for this to be filled and hence the first supports are a bit deeper. The risk reward for fresh longs from this level is a bit unfavorable. Markets though continue to be strong till they are holding the support levels mentioned above. So a dip till these levels would be healthy for our indices.
  • Since I see a decent opportunity of this gap fill and the global cues today could be somber, markets may consolidate in this range. I would recommend to wait for  dip to the first support levels and then trying to enter. Aggressive traders may take make their own calls, based on risk reward profiles they respect.
  • #Nifty and #BankNIfty both look strong. #Nifty is driven from #NiftyAuto, #NiftyFMCG, #NiftyPharma and #Metals. #Reliance still hasn't participated in the rally. #NiftyIT is yet to pick any reasonable strength.
  • #FII yesterday bought for 1000Cr plus and #DII bought for some 36Cr. The #FII also closed a huge number of shorts on Index futures. The recent rush has partly been funded by the Short covering driven by a lack of follow through on the shorts and some strong participation from from the retail side. Some rebalancing activities have also been a reason.
  • While the shorts are not getting a follow through, The above two reasons somehow cast shadows on the follow through of the longs. Keeping the markets in a range. Wait for a breakout from this range, before taking large bets. Till then play inside with a decent hedging.
  • The options OI indicate a strong support at 17600 and building up at 17800 for #Nifty, while 40000 and 41000 are the support levels for #BankNifty. These levels sync with the support levels mentioned above from the chart as well. Call writing has been a bit far on #Nifty, while #BankNifty call writing has been closer.
  • #DollarIndex has picked some more strength and is now closer to 110, the 10Y yields in US continue to rise an are now at 3.56. #Oil is at 90.5. Commodity prices globally have eased. The strength in Dollar will keep pressure on global Indices. 
  • We were outperforming global Equity markets, lets see if this continues... 

1. FII were net buyers for 1196 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 131 Cr. A net buying of 1327 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 2842 longs and unwound 17520 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  unwound 27068 short calls and   created 13820 short puts. They also unwound 3761 long calls and  created 13148 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17600 followed by 17500 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 18200. Highest Put writing was seen at 17800 and highest call writing was seen at 18250 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 41000 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 41500 and highest call writing was seen at 41600 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in green and Europe closed in red

7. US markets trading in red as of now

8. The breadth of the market was extremely positive today

9. Nifty opened at 17740 and made an intra day high of 17919 and a low of 17744 before closing at 17816 .The range of Nifty for the day was 175 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 41304 and made an intra day high of 41677 and a low of 41207 before closing at 41468 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 470 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 109.933

12. Led by Pharma and Auto, all sectors closed in green today

13. India VIX is at  18.7975

14. US 10Y yields are at 3.540

15. Nifty futures saw short covering

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long buildup

17. US Brent oil is at 90.49

18. USD / INR is at 79.772

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

4th November' 2022 (Evening)

Image
4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  | Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis. I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels. On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears. We will discuss all this, but before that, levels... From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first...
Read more

28th October' 2022 (Evening)

Image
28th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 9.30 PM on 30th October' 2022   | The last month closed on a high note. Starting weak, the month of October saw decent gains and closed almost at month highs. Market was still strong and on the first day of the current series also, the indices were relatively strong.  #Nifty made 4 consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty made a bearish candle after 3 bullish candles, however still made a higher high and a higher low. Levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty are in a range of 17650 to 17900 and 39825 to 41550 respectively. In this range #BankNifty saw some profit booking on Friday, while #Nifty is yet to test the upper level. I expected #Nifty to test 17900 on Friday, however this did not happen. This may probably get breached in the opening tomorrow. Important to see is that will this trigger a profit booking and a rejection of the level or will the level hold. On Friday, the first tr...
Read more

25th October' 2022 (Evening)

25th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 11.00 PM on 26th October' 2022  | 1. FII were net selling for 247 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 872 Cr. A net buying of 625 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 1390 longs and unwound 17862 shorts on the index futures 3. On the option front FII  unwound 7656 short calls and   unwound 28440 short puts. They also closed 34543 long calls and  closed 96232 long Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17800. Highest Put writing was seen at 17700 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 40500 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 41100 and highest call writing was seen at 41500 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mostly in green today and ...
Read more