4th November' 2022 (Evening)

4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  |

  • Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis.
  • I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels.
  • On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears.
  • We will discuss all this, but before that, levels...
  • From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first resistance with the range of second support to second resistance, we see the gap is not much. This indicates a good consolidation in that range. So i would see this range as 17950 to 18200 on #Nifty and 41050 to 41550 on #BankNifty. 
  • I would watch a breach of this range on either side and expect a sharp movement in that direction. Till then the range above could hold, the option writing on Friday, does indicate a range bound action in this week. The range as above.
  • #FII on Friday, bought for 1436 Cr in cash. This buying has been now a seventh straight day of buying from their side. With #DollarIndex inching down and some green flavor across global markets, I see this as a good sign.
  • On the options side, the #FII created a reasonable number of longs and shorts both on Index futures. they also sold a high number of puts and calls on Index futures. This kind of positioning on both sides, indicate their conviction on a range bound action (on Index) for this week. 
  • #DollarIndex as mentioned above has eased, though the US yields have inched slightly higher. India VIX has also eased, indicating some strength.
  • Options OI indicates support at 18000 for #Nifty and 41500 for #BankNifty. 
  • So all in all i see a base building up at 18000 and 41500. So i would maintain a bullish bias till the levels mentioned above are breached on either side. One may play this view as per their trading strategies and risk profile.
  • Economic events this week :
    • Mon - ECB president commentary
    • Tue - Indian markets closed
    • Wed - US Oil Inventories
    • Thu - US CPI and jobs data
    • Fri - British GDP and German CPI
  • Wish you all a happy trading week ahead....

1. FII were net Buyers for 1436 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 548 Cr. A net buying of 888 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 2064 longs and created 4028 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 165940 short calls and   created 106707 short puts. They also bought 220020 long calls and  bought 146510 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 18000 followed by 18100 and highest OI for CE is at 18500 followed by 18600. Highest Put writing was seen at 18000 and highest call writing was seen at 18100 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 41000 followed by 40500 and highest OI for CE is at 41500 followed by 42000. Highest Put writing was seen at 41500 and highest call writing was seen at 41500 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in green and Europe also closed in green

7. US markets closed in green on Friday

8. The breadth of the market was strong on Friday

9. Nifty opened at 18053 and made an intra day high of 18135 and a low of 18017 before closing at 18117 .The range of Nifty for the day was 118 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 41314 and made an intra day high of 41516 and a low of 41051 before closing at 41258 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 465 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 110.675

12. Metals, Media and Energy led the gains while pharma, IT and FMCG led the losses

13. India VIX is at  15.655

14. US 10Y yields are at 4.163

15. Nifty futures saw long buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short buildup

17. US Brent oil is at 98.75

18. USD / INR is at 81.982

 

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