18th October' 2022 (Evening)

18th October' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 11.00 PM  |

  • I mentioned in my last notes, in spite of the fall on Friday, US markets may drive a positive sentiment. This subject to the critical levels being held. I also suggested to watch this on the US futures. It was beautifully respected on Monday. Tuesday was a follow up.
  • Taking cues from the US action, #DII today also went on a buying spree and see the result. The #FII were forced to cover more shorts.- The larger question is, now what?
  • Before that, the levels :-
  • After the move on Monday, the Indian Indices opened gap up today and also traded in a range. While this forced the #FII to cover shorts, we also saw some resistance at today's highs. 
  • Both the Indices on the futures side, saw short covering. Fresh longs are yet to be seen. Also the Indices have left a gap, this needs to be plugged. Also after a strong move from Friday till Monday, some traders may like to book some profits. We may thus see a bit of consolidation and a small dip till the first support above. 
  • However, the price action is strong and till the first supports are held, we may see some more bullish action. The charts actually indicate a move up to 17900 on #Nifty and 41700 on #BankNifty are very much possible. Will they breach the levels and take it to new highs? I cannot say that as of now. 
  • #FII today sold for a small amount and unwound a large number of shorts on Index futures. They also closed long puts and short puts, indicating a cautious stand, fearing some more momentum. Also fearing a small dip maybe. Though they haven't turned bullish yet.
  • Dollar Index, US yields, Oil prices are all stable at current levels. So no cues need to be taken from there.
  • India VIX has eased and is a good sign.
  • Sectorally, i see some stocks in #BankNIfty giving a breakout. Though #HDFCBank still is cranky.
  • In the IT index, #TCS and #Infy seem to be strong, though #Infy is stronger. I see some runway for Infy. #TCS may consolidate here.
  • With a strong #BankNIfty and #NIftyIT, #Nifty may well get the required support to touch the levels I mentioned above. As we saw some critical levels of #DowJones and #Nasdaq are held, This time US may not give a negative surprise for #Nifty to shock.
  • Well as of now, i see the Indices set for a good Pre Diwali rally, though do not go overboard to make aggressive positions. keep the position size under control.

1. FII were net selling for 153 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 2084 Cr. A net buying of 1931 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 4736 longs and unwound 22660 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 2172 short calls and   unwound 18232 short puts. They also bought 21462 long calls and  closed 43799 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17400 followed by 17500 and highest OI for CE is at 17500 followed by 17700. Highest Put writing was seen at 17400 and highest call writing was seen at 17500 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 39500 followed by 39000 and highest OI for CE is at 40500 followed by 41000. Highest Put writing was seen at 40200 and highest call writing was seen at 40300 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in green and Europe closed in green

7. US markets trading in green as of now

8. The breadth of the market was strong today

9. Nifty opened at 17438 and made an intra day high of 17527 and a low of 17434 before closing at 17486 .The range of Nifty for the day was 93 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 40252 and made an intra day high of 40435 and a low of 40139 before closing at 40318 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 296 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 112.060

12. Led by Media and realty, all sectors closed in green today

13. India VIX is at  17.4525

14. US 10Y yields are at 4.035

15. Nifty futures saw short covering

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short covering

17. US Brent oil is at 90.06

18. USD / INR is at 82.288


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