EquityCompound2

30th Jun'2021 (Evening) Indices opened marginally up today and made an attempt to rise. However, they lost steam in the second half and saw a continuous decline to close at the lows of the day. While Nifty did not breach the first critical level of 15673 (20DEMA and First Swing support) and closed above at 15721, BankNifty did breach the first support at 20DEMA at 34882 and closed lower at 34772. Looking at the price action, the next levels to watch for are 15673, 15450 for Nifty and 34525, 33908 for BankNifty. FII again sold for 1600Cr, while DII bought for 1500Cr. The same pattern which has been followed by them for some days. Though in FnO, FII created some longs today. In any case FII have not been creating shorts. While the FII created Long on Index futures, they sold stock futures heavily and surprisingly also unwound a good number of puts. This actually could be misleading and seems like an indication of a short term weakness. Citing the weekly expiry tomorrow, I advice caut...

29th Jun'2021 (Evening)\ Markets opened marginally lower today and started sliding due to profit booking. While Nifty gave away approx 70 points, BankNifty gave away approx 350 points today. Both indices made bearish candles on their daily charts, this being a second successive bearish candle. Though it is still above its important supports of 20 DEMA and also Previous Swing lows. These levels are as follows : Nifty - 20DEMA at 15673. First Swing support - 15673 Second Swing support - 15450 BankNifty - 20DEMA at 34882 First Swing support - 34525 Second Swing support - 33908 Coincidentally Nifty 20DEMA and Pr Swing coincide at 15673, making it an important support. Today Nifty made a low of 15713, just above this level, so watch this tomorrow morning. BankNifty I feel will has three levels at 34882, 34525 and then 33908. Today BankNifty made a low of 34913. This is just marginally above the first support of 34882. So watch this level tomorrow morning. If the Index breaches one level...

28th Jun'2021 (Evening) Markets opened gap up today(Nifty at a new all time high), but immediately started seeing profit booking. The slide down was slow but continuous. Nifty Closed almost at the lows and BankNifty made a slight recovery from its lows before closing. While the movements have been indicative of support and expectations of a break out were high among traders, they were shattered at least for today, as once again market rejected 15900 level for Nifty. As mentioned earlier, BankNifty has to support for a market expansion above 15900/16000. While BankNifty was seemingly stronger than Nifty today, it could not break out as well. Then comes Reliance and it also disappointed today. So all in all nothing great happened. FII sold again today both in cash as well as they also unwound some long in futures and created some shorts. They also sold three times more calls than puts. So kind of bearish both in cash and futures. Indices have been sold off at highs by FII and bought ...

25th Jun'2021 (Evening) After closing the Jun series on a slightly bearish note, making a bearish candle on the Monthly chart (tweaked for the expiry dates), Indices on Friday, picked up strong momentum and closed strong. It made a strong bullish candle both on the daily as well as the weekly chart. Both Nifty and BankNifty also saw some short covering on the futures side. This could be a result of some buying by the DII in the cash market. FII sold for 678 Cr and DII bought for 1154Cr.  Nifty was particularly very strong. In spite of a negative contribution from Index heavy weight Reliance, it made a decent gain. So now if reliance supports, Nifty could make a breakthrough. IT sector seems to be specially bullish. I have been pointing out this sector for some time now and hope it helped readers of my notes. BankNifty and Auto are at important levels after recent move. The key to Nifty's move further is now, BankNifty. I mentioned earlier also, without BankNifty support, Nifty ...

22nd Jun' 2021 (Evening) 1. FII were net sellers for 1027 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 302 Cr. A net selling of 725 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 4486 longs and unwound 7147 shorts on the indices 3. On the option front FII  sold 32402 calls and   unwound 23484 puts. They also bought 61550 calls and  bought 13860 Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15500 followed by 15000 and highest OI for CE is at 16000 followed by 15900. Highest Put writing was seen at 15800 and highest call writing was seen at 15900 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 33000 followed by 34000 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 35500. Highest Put writing was seen at 35000 and highest call writing was seen at 35000 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in green 7. US markets are trading flat as of now 8. The breadth of the market was strong today 9. Nifty opened at 15840...

21st Jun' 2021 (Evening) The markets opened today exposed to weak global cues, with US down on Friday and Asian markets trading with deep cuts.  Nifty opened at 15525, 160 points gap down and BankNifty opened at 34109, 440 points down.  This opening was very close to the critical levels indicated yesterday. Nifty bounced from 15505 and BankNifty from 33937. The critical levels I mentioned yesterday were 15450 and 33900 for Nifty and BankNifty respectively. US futures also started trading in green and helped maintain the sentiment on our market. Todays trading range was between yesterdays range. On a daily chart both Nifty and BankNifty made bullish candles but were inside candles. Friday's low or high were not breached. Fridays low continue to be immediate supports and have to be watched on the downside. On the upper side, we need to also watch the Friday high. Coincidentally, Nifty made a high of 15769 on Thursday and has been kind of hitting the same high on Friday and today...

18th Jun'2021 (Evening) I mentioned in my Thursday blog that the the market activity on Thursday was influenced by the expiry and the real direction would evolve on Friday. Also that the High and low of Thursday are the first indicators of direction. Though the markets on Friday opened gap up, they continued to slide through the day. Though they breached the Thursday lows and took a sharp dip from there. Nifty made a low of 15450 and BankNifty made a low of 33908, both below the crackdown levels I indicated on Thursday.  However, there was a sharp recovery seen from those levels and both indices almost recovered all losses as compared to Thursday closing. Nifty recovered 200 points and BankNifty 650 points. In the cash market, FII on Friday bought and DII also bought. The total buying from the institutional side was more than 3000Cr. I believe most of this came in the evening and was responsible for the late recovery on Thursday.  So these two levels now become actually very i...

17th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Responding to weak global cues driven from the FED outcome yesterday, our markets also opened lower and continued to slide. Nifty made a low of 15616 and BankNifty made a low of 34458 before closing after a nominal recovery. These levels are the precise levels mentioned yesterday, Nifty support of 15606 and BankNifty support of 34374. I feel that todays movements would have some expiry related trades. It would be important to see the direction tomorrow. For the last two days now, FII have sold in cash and created bearish positions in FnO. A real weakness is only if this trend continues tomorrow and yesterdays levels are breached. These levels as mentioned above are only symptoms. I feel Nifty should not break until we see it below 15500 and BankNifty below 34000.  Though I feel a consolidation at these levels would be healthy for Nifty to make a fresh breakout and an attempt to breach 16000. I feel IT stocks should perform better tomorrow and Banking stocks...

16th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Markets opened today on a day with nothing important or phenomenal on the global cues. The FED outcome today is being eyed eagerly. Considered as one of the most important FED meets in recent times, our markets would react to the outcome tomorrow. Most important clue being looked into this is a statement on tapering and any indication on the timing of interest changes if any. This would set the tone for market globally. As is normally the case, markets enter the FED meet with long positions, however, this time this does not seem to be the case.  In our markets, while the FII are still long in FnO side with a ratio of 72:28, they have lightened their positions over the last days from a ratio of 85:15. They also sold in cash market to the tune of 800 Cr and were supported by a selling of 800 Cr from the DII side as well. FII also created positions in the Options side as well, they sold 4 times more calls than puts. On the charts, both Nifty and BankNifty made...

15th Evening' 2021 (Evening) 1. FII were net buyers for 633 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 649 Cr. A net selling of 16 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 1633 longs and created 1613 shorts on the indices 3. On the option front FII  sold 11666 calls and   sold 5331 puts. They also bought 16147 calls and  unwound 4542 Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15000 followed by 15800 and highest OI for CE is at 16000 followed by 15900. Highest Put writing was seen at 15800 and highest call writing was seen at 15900 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 35000 followed by 34500 and highest OI for CE is at 35500 followed by 36000. Highest Put writing was seen at 35200 and highest call writing was seen at 35300 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in green 7. US markets trading with some losses as of now 8. The breadth of the market was strong today 9. Nifty opened at...

14th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Markets opened on a slightly negative note today. Global cues were somber and our markets opened accordingly.  Strong profit booking was seen on both the indices and a sharp decline of 200 points on Nifty and 600 points on BankNifty was seen. Both indices however found support and recovered to near opening levels, making candles with a long lower shadow. An indication of support at lower levels. Nifty support came in at 15600 and BankNifty at 15380. These could be immediate support for this week expiry on Thursday. These levels should be watched for any breach in the coming sessions. FII sold today for 500Cr and DII bought for 500Cr. The same story of FII selling one day and buying another day was repeated today. On the FnO side though, the FII unwound a good 17962 longs and also created 6406 shorts. This now changes their position on index to 75:25 in favor of longs from the earlier 83:17. On the options front the FII sold equal number of calls and puts. T...

13th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Both Nifty and BankNifty opened higher on Friday. They started seeing selling and saw a sharp intraday fall. However, Nifty picked up support at 15750 and recovered almost all losses and closed 3 points above the opening level of 15796. This was coincidentally also its previous all time high level of 15800. It ended making a Doji type of a candle on the daily chart, indicating some uncertainty. BankNifty on the other hand corrected a bit deeper and did not recover as much as Nifty. It ended up making a bearish candle on the daily chart. While BankNifty opened outside the downward channel formed over the past couple of trading sessions, it quickly came in and closed within this channel. FII bought marginally for 18 Cr. FII have been buying and selling alternatively over the past few days. While DII have been mostly sellers over the past few days. I see a pattern of buying by DII at lower levels, supporting the markets.  DII seems to be powered with some fres...

9th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Nifty opened higher today and made a fresh all time high of 15800 before seeing profit booking and a sharp intraday fall of approximately 230 points. It did recover some 70 points from its lows and closed at 15635. Thus making a decent size bearish candle on the daily chart. BankNifty opened flat, made a high of 35402 and could not pbreak out the previous range, seeing a heavy selling and breached its support at 34950 and made an intraday low of 34641 before closing just below its support at 34950. FII sold in the cash market and were neutral in the options front. They did cut a decent amount of long positions in options. If i look at these in conjunction with a low VIX, this is an indication that a large movement from this level may not be expected, atleast for tomorrow's expiry. At the risk of going wrong, i would say, this could mean an eventless expiry tomorrow.  US markets are trading flat from the start of this week. This is due to the caution driv...

8th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Nifty opened gap up again today but started seeing profit booking and saw an intraday low of 15680 before closing at 15740, making a small bearish candle on the daily chart. BankNifty though opened lower and continuously, almost closing at the lows of the day.  BankNifty made an intraday swing high of 35200 leading to a some call writing at this level. It however, could not maintain this level and slid back to close at 35085 making a bearish candle on a daily chart. BankNifty is currently seeing a support at 34950 and a resistance at 35550 and continues to be rangebound. Markets are failing to take any strong global cues as the US markets are trading subtle on inflation concerns. FII again bought today in cash and sold more calls than puts. Unwound some longs and created some shorts. DII on the other hand sold more than FII. On the options front Nifty shows heavy call writing at 15800 and 16000, indicating a congestion in this range. On the other hand, it is...

7th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Markets opened strong again today, but as seen from past few days, saw some selling, but traded in a very narrow range. Nifty saw an intraday range of 95 points and BankNifty 207 points.  This extremely flat range and an extremely positive sentiment also led the VIX to fall to PreCovid levels. Intraday range for Nifty for the last 6 days is as 232, 132, 138, 94, 111, 95. BankNifty has been similarly making 654, 472, 345, 310, 634, 207. BankNifty shows a divergence from this shrinking daily range, atleast on one occasion. While the sentiment, VIX and a shrinking daily range (with higher lows) is indicative of a bullish breakout, somehow the strong movement is not seen in the large caps.  While Midcaps are making new highs every day, Somehow, Nifty is not seeing a proportionate benefit. Also, BankNifty is somehow not supporting the Nifty movement. If BankNifty supports now and makes a move towards all time high. Nifty may easily see a day with 16000. Howe...

4th Jun' 2021 (Evening) Markets opened higher on Friday and then saw some quick selling, falling sharply, but also some support coming in at lower levels. Made an attempt to recover, however, this attempt was capped again. Nifty saw a high of 15733 and fell to 15622, though intraday could not cross 15700 again and closed at 15670. This led to some good amount of call writing at 15700. BankNifty saw a high of 35810 and fell to 35176. It actually could not make any decent attempt to cover losses. BankNifty made a big bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. Also leading to good amount of call writing at 35500. On the cash side FII made a good amount of buying for 1499 Cr, but almost negated by DII selling for 1175Cr. On the FnO front, FII cut some longs and created shorts. Also they sold good amount of calls compared to puts, Though a decent hedging was created on the options side. Their position on FnO seems bearish. Looking at the high valuations, Nifty now needs a good support...

2nd Jun' 2021 (Evening) Markets opened in negative today and saw profit booking until a low of 15459 on Nifty and 35070 on BankNifty. They however made a decent recovery from the day lows to close in green after making a bullish candle on the daily chart. FII were net buyers today and their buying was complimented by DII buying as well. A combined buying of 1162 Cr from the institutional side, provided the support to the indices at lower levels. I feel Nifty is strong till it is above 15380 and Nifty above 34950. While both the indices are just below their immediate resistance at 15620 and 35540. A rise above these levels tomorrow may take the markets back to their immediate swing highs and Nifty may attempt a fresh All time high, this time this could be around 15800. For a decent trade, a breach on either side of these levels has to be watched for. Nifty 15380 to 15620 and Bank Nifty 34950 to 35540. Market breadth was positive today and supported by VIX is in favor of bulls.  FII ...

1st Jun' 2021 (Evening) Markets today opened higher but then saw profit booking and dropped. Both indices made bearish candles on the daily chart and closed in red. While Nifty was marginally in red, Bank Nifty closed with half a percent of cut. FII as mentioned yesterday were net sellers today to the tune of 450Cr. DII seems supported the market on the lower side and prevented any steep correction. The lows of yesterday were protected by institutional intervention and that kind of spoiled the market setup.  On the futures side, FII were kind of neutral, though they sold calls heavily and also bought in almost equal amount. I expect a rangebound market, though with a bearish bias. Lets see tomorrow. On the options front, on Nifty mostly 15600 straddles was being played, so both 15600 call and 15660 put was active. Bank Nifty however seems to have some stiff resistance above 35500. Markets today was generally cautious due to the following reasons. Discouraging GDP numbers and absenc...