30th Jun'2021 (Evening)

30th Jun'2021 (Evening)

  • Indices opened marginally up today and made an attempt to rise. However, they lost steam in the second half and saw a continuous decline to close at the lows of the day.
  • While Nifty did not breach the first critical level of 15673 (20DEMA and First Swing support) and closed above at 15721, BankNifty did breach the first support at 20DEMA at 34882 and closed lower at 34772.
  • Looking at the price action, the next levels to watch for are 15673, 15450 for Nifty and 34525, 33908 for BankNifty.
  • FII again sold for 1600Cr, while DII bought for 1500Cr. The same pattern which has been followed by them for some days. Though in FnO, FII created some longs today. In any case FII have not been creating shorts.
  • While the FII created Long on Index futures, they sold stock futures heavily and surprisingly also unwound a good number of puts. This actually could be misleading and seems like an indication of a short term weakness. Citing the weekly expiry tomorrow, I advice caution.
  • The Dollar Index has risen to 92.4 and is at its resistance now. A breach of this level could weaken the equity exposure and encourage some flight of capital. 
  • US 10Y yields are in control and do not seem to be a concern.
  • Covid cases are not relevant as of now.
  • The option OI indicates a range of 15650-15750 for Nifty and 34500-35000 for BankNifty. However, caution is advised from an expiry perspective. Tomorrow's expiry may throw a suprise.
  • The up side seems to be securely capped as of now at 15900 and 35000. Looking at the VIX which is now below 13, the downside is also limited. So if the shorts created do not get a follow through, we may see a short covering.
  • If it will happens tomorrow, I cannot say that.
  • European markets closed in red today , reason being a lower GDP number released today. Home sales number from US have been positive, leading to a jump on Dow.
  • Oil is though back above 75Dollar and is a slight negative.
  • Watch for German and British Mfg PMI tomorrow.

1. FII were net sellers for 1646 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 1520 Cr. A net selling of 126 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 5974 longs and created 268 shorts on the indices

3. On the option front FII  unwound 3619 calls and   unwound 4889 puts. They also bought 76 calls and  unwound 7368 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15500 followed by 15600 and highest OI for CE is at 15900 followed by 15800. Highest Put writing was seen at 15650 and highest call writing was seen at 15750 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 35000 followed by 34000 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 35500. Highest Put writing was seen at 34700 and highest call writing was seen at 34800 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in red

7. US markets trading flat with Nasdaq marginally in red and Dow in green.

8. The breadth of the market was weak today

9. Nifty opened at 15776 and made an intra day high of 15839 and a low of 15708 before closing at 15721 .The range of Nifty for the day was 131 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35001 and made an intra day high of 35214 and a low of 34730 before closing at 34772 .The range of Nifty for the day was 484 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 92.412

12. Except for IT all sectors closed in red

13. India VIX increased to 13.05

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.443

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty saw SHort buildup


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