13th Jun' 2021 (Evening)

13th Jun' 2021 (Evening)

  • Both Nifty and BankNifty opened higher on Friday. They started seeing selling and saw a sharp intraday fall.
  • However, Nifty picked up support at 15750 and recovered almost all losses and closed 3 points above the opening level of 15796. This was coincidentally also its previous all time high level of 15800. It ended making a Doji type of a candle on the daily chart, indicating some uncertainty.
  • BankNifty on the other hand corrected a bit deeper and did not recover as much as Nifty. It ended up making a bearish candle on the daily chart. While BankNifty opened outside the downward channel formed over the past couple of trading sessions, it quickly came in and closed within this channel.
  • FII bought marginally for 18 Cr. FII have been buying and selling alternatively over the past few days. While DII have been mostly sellers over the past few days. I see a pattern of buying by DII at lower levels, supporting the markets. 
  • DII seems to be powered with some fresh liquidity coming in from the domestic retails investors. The domestic mutual funds have seen a capital influx.
  • VIX on the other hand is on a historical low level. Now at 14.1
  • A quick analysis of the VIX on a daily chart shows bottoming out. Though it doesn't mean, an immediate reversal. It may however, see an increase in some upcoming sessions. So as usual, citing the market levels and the uncharted territory Nifty is in, I advice lighter positions and hedging.  
  • There has been a reduction in the intraday volumes, this could be driven by the margin capping or due to a completely unified stand on the bullishness in the market.
  • My experience is that when there is an opinion of one sided movement in the market, the movement actually is on the other side. I can be wrong though. Well, lets see.
  • US markets are also showing uncertainty. Dow on Friday closed making a Doji candle again. The intraday movements in US have also been lower in the past few days. S&P VIX closed at 18.85 on Friday. Again, at lowest levels over the last one year.
  • After the inflation concerns in this week. Investors and traders are now looking at the FED meeting on Wednesday, and US economic data on PPI, Industrial production and retails sales on Tuesday. Well this would be a day before our weekly closing on Thursday. So watch it. 
  • On the domestic front, Covid cases have been decreasing everyday and more and more states are declaring reopening, these are good positives for us.
  • Options data shows a strong support for Nifty at 15700 for this week and 35000 for BankNifty.
  • Looking at flat markets and lower VIX, mostly straddles are written by option writers. 15800 for Nifty and 35000 for BankNifty. Looking at the premium of these straddles. 15650-15950 is the trading range for Nifty and 34400-35600 for BankNifty for the current week.

1. FII were net buyers for 18 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 666 Cr. A net buying of 684 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 2876 longs and unwound 1224 shorts on the indices

3. On the option front FII  sold 70865 calls and   sold 30273 puts. They also bought 57788 calls and  bought 36789 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15700 followed by 15800 and highest OI for CE is at 16000 followed by 15800. Highest Put writing was seen at 15800 and highest call writing was seen at 15800 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 35000 followed by 34500 and highest OI for CE is at 35500 followed by 35000. Highest Put writing was seen at 35000 and highest call writing was seen at 35000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in green on Friday

7. US markets closed flat on Friday

8. The breadth of the market was weak

9. Nifty opened at 15796 and made an intra day high of 15835 and a low of 15749 before closing at 15799 .The range of Nifty for the day was 86 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35324 and made an intra day high of 35344 and a low of 34891 before closing at 35047 .The range of Nifty for the day was 453 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 90.527

12. Metals, IT, Pharma and Energy were positive today and others closed in red.

13. India VIX reduced to 14.1

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.454

15. Nifty futures saw long buildup

16. Bank Nifty saw short build up


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