5th Aug' 2022 (Evening)

5th Aug' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 7th Aug' 2022 at 9.00 PM  |

  • First of all, apologize for being a bit irregular for some time. Sometime, the work does not allow the luxury to sit and make peaceful notes. We have to be content with some quick observation from the charts.
  • Bulls have been charging over the bears for some time now. After that dip of #Nifty to 15183 (on 17th Jun), bulls have not taken a breather. 
  • Last week on Thu, at one point the steep fall gave a feeling of some profit booking, however, the same was bought and we were back, charging again. Though this would have helped the market lose some heat and cool down. 
  • On Friday, both #Nifty and #BankNIfty made inside candles and traded in a zone. We may breach this range of 17161 to 17474 on #Nifty and 37249 and 38231 on #BankNifty and that would set us for the next targets on these indices. 
  • So, let us look at the levels 
  • A quick look at the above levels and some analysis of charts in backend, I feel that, in immediate short term, we may see some more cooling off till the second support levels indicated above.
  • Since, some strong institutional buying is pivoted at the second support levels, we may see a bounce back from those levels. In mid term, I expect #Nifty may be looking at 17800-18000 levels and #BankNifty may be looking at 38600-38700 kind of levels.
  • Both #BankNifty and the #NiftyIT (strongest Indices seem to be supporting for this). #NiftyFMCG is already aggressive and is at all time high.
  • While the mood is extremely buoyant at the moment, caution is advised and position sizing to be managed appropriately. Any global event may turn the risk off mode again.
  • #China and #Taiwan tensions to be watched closely as these could be the next big risks for the markets. 
  • #DollarIndex is rising again and is at 106 plus now. The US 10Y yields are though below 3 at the moment. Watch the opening of US futures tomorrow, they will be setting the mood for us here.
  • Oil has eased and would support out movement upwards.
  • Most of the global economic events turned out weak data last week. Indicating some support for the markets as this would support a weak #Inflation, However, the increase in rates in India would continue to fuel the banking stocks. Biggest stock #HDFCBank has not moved yet. The leadership of banking stocks seem to be moving to #ICICIBAnk.
  • #FII have been buying in cash for the last week and have taken some good positions on INdex futures. Though they are neutral on #Options. Supports our view above.
  • Some economic events this week 
    • Tue - Indian markets closed for Muharram
    • Wed - US CPI data
    • Thu - Japan closed and Jobs data and PPI data from US
    • Fri - British GDP data.
  • Wish you a happy trading week. Keep safe guys.....

1. FII were net buyers for 1605 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 495 Cr. A net  buying of 1110 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 9322 longs and unwound 1012 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 57204 short calls and   created 59897 short puts. They also bought 51928 long calls and  bought 40266 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17000 followed by 17300 and highest OI for CE is at 17500 followed by 17600. Highest Put writing was seen at 17400 and highest call writing was seen at 17500 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 37000 followed by 37500 and highest OI for CE is at 38500 followed by 38000. Highest Put writing was seen at 38000 and highest call writing was seen at 38100 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in green while Europe closed mostly in red on Friday

7. US markets closed mixed on Friday with Dow mildly in green and Nasdaq in red

8. The breadth of the market was positive on Friday 

9. Nifty opened at 17423 and made an intra day high of 17474 and a low of 17348 before closing at 17397 .The range of Nifty for the day was 126 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 37868 and made an intra day high of 38150 and a low of 37779 before closing at 37920 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 371 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 106.43

12. Led by Energy and Auto, except FMCG and realty, all sectors closed in red

13. India VIX increased to 18.9150

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.827

15. Nifty futures saw long buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw log buildup

17. US Brent oil eased to 94.66

18. USD / INR increased to 79.647

 

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