8th July' 2022 (Evening)

 8th July' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 10th July' 2022 at 6.30 PM  |

  • First of all I apologize for being off markets for some time and not actively sharing my notes. Sometime, life is not so kind with us.
  • Ok so lately markets gave some relief from the unnerving moments it was throwing on us and challenging us. The market texture suddenly changed to kind of risk on mode. While a lot of theories have been proposed for this, I believe we should be focused on the price action and Market levels. 
  • Easing of commodity prices, viz Oil, metals have been the basis for these theories to crop up. With a drop in the commodity prices, the Inflation is expected to getting tamed and hence a softer stand by FED is expected. 
  • From our standpoint, a drop in Oil prices is always seen positively. Weakening of Rupee is positive for IT and rate rises are seen positively for the Banking sector. All these heavy weights lead to a rise in Index.
  • This recent surge could also be a positioning ahead of the result season coming up. With Q1 results coming up and TCS results are already out, we should now see a trend building up. TCS though has not shown anything, really to celebrate about.
  • Our markets though have been strengthening since the start of this month. Lets look at the levels first.
  • So looking at the levels, Nifty is actually at a critical level and shows that we may try to touch 16500 before we ease out. Bank Nifty also shows a move up to 35500 levels is possible. Though if we open weak and dip below the first support levels a decent dip is very much possible. 
  • The charts show some consolidation and tug off war between the bulls and bears at the current levels. So let us see, how do we start tomorrow. Global cues coming in tomorrow morning will be important to set the tone for our markets. So tread the path carefully tomorrow.
  • FII have been selling less over the last few days (after being buyers for a day) and have been actively covering their shorts. Their stance from here would be important. In this month itself they have created around 16000 longs and covered 26000 shorts. Now they are 27% net long from 15% at the start of this month.
  • on the options side, heavy put writing at 16200 and 35000 for Bank Nifty indicates that these levels may offer support, though if taken down the next levels show up at 16000 for Nifty and 34000 for Bank Nifty.
  • The volatility Index for India is down to below 20 and that is a good sign. The global markets have been supportive for the last days. Dollar Index though has been rising has not deterred the equity markets to rise. However, the US Markets on Friday were flattish and did not show aggression. If this is a preparation to rise further, we will know tomorrow. I however, see some consolidation on the cards.
  • The result season starts now and we saw TCS posting its results o the weekend. Important results to watch are HCLTech on Tue and HDFCBank on Saturday.
  • Important global events to watch this week are :
    • Mon - Bank of England Gov comments
    • Tue - German Economic sentiment and US energy outlook
    • Wed - British GDP and US Core CPI.
    • Thu - Jobs data and PPI from US
    • Fri - Retails sales data from US.
  • Wish you a happy trading week ahead...

1. FII were net sellers for 109 Cr today, while DII were Buyers for 34 Cr. A net selling of 75 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 466 longs and unwound 8521 shorts on the index futures
3. On the option front FII  created 10612 short calls and   created 16300 short puts. They also bought 27200 long calls and  unwound 11808 long Puts.
4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16000 followed by 16200 and highest OI for CE is at 16200 followed by 16500. Highest Put writing was seen at 16200 and highest call writing was seen at 16200-16700 levels.
5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 35000 followed by 34000 and highest OI for CE is at 35500 followed by 35000. Highest Put writing was seen at 35000 and highest call writing was seen at 35000-35500 levels. 
6. Asian markets closed mostly in green and Europe closed mostly in green
7. US markets closed flattish on Friday
8. The breadth of the market was strong today
9. Nifty opened at 16273 and made an intra day high of 16275 and a low of 16157 before closing at 16220 .The range of Nifty for the day was 118 points.
10. Bank Nifty opened at 35258 and made an intra day high of 35262 and a low of 34977 before closing at 35124 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 285 points.
11. US Dollar Index is at 106.690
12. Metals and Realty lost while led by Energy, most of the sectors gained slightly.
13. India VIX eased to 18.3950
14. US 10Y yields are at 3.080
15. Nifty futures saw short covering
16. Bank Nifty futures saw short covering
17. US Brent oil increased to 107.15
18. USD / INR increased to 79.333

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