17th Jun' 2022 (Evening)

17th Jun' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written on 19th May' 2022 at 6.30 PM |

  • Both #Nifty and #BankNifty opened gap down on Friday and then consolidated through the day. After a big trending expiry day, it was expected to be a day of consolidation and an inside candle on Friday.
  • The breakdown seen on Friday had probably now opened the doors to the levels of 14600 i have been mentioning for some time. A detailed analysis now generates a visibility of 14200 on the anvil. This may actually take time and may not be linear, but then market is always capable of throwing surprises.
  • Let us look at the levels first :
  • Markets on Friday consolidated in a close range. #Nifty traded in a range of 217 points and #BankNifty traded in a range of 599 points.
  • #FII on Friday sold a whopping 7818Cr in cash and the #DII tried compensating by buying for 6086Cr. However, this left a gap of 1800Cr on the table. The Indices could still find some ground because of some early buying coming in from the Domestic institutional side.
  • On the #Futures and #Options front, the #FII were slightly cautious. They made some 4000 longs and covered 1200 shorts on Index futures and sold as many #Puts as #Calls on Index. They however closed a large number of short on stock futures.
  • Globally the markets in US were flattish and the markets in Asia and Europe were mixed. Monday the US markets will be closed, so we will have to wait for Tuesday for a clear trend to evolve. Do keep a watch on the US futures for a clue in short term.
  • The options OI Indicate a trading range of 15000 to 15700 for #Nifty and 32000 to 33500 for #BankNifty. The Options writing was quite wide, indicating a wider trading range for the Indices.
  • #DollarIndex is at 104.468 and is again rising towards the 105 mark. US10Y yields are at 22.7575 and indicate a high volatility ahead. Crude has eased a bit, however the INR trades weak.
  • Sectorally, i see some strength in Financials and a bit in IT stocks. Rest of the Index stocks continue to trade weak. We will have to see may be Monday or Tue to make an opinion about them. However, for short term traders, keep the levels in mind, before taking positions.
  • I was doing an analysis on the PE of #Nifty and have posted some details on it. Interestingly, the Indices have bounced back from 15-18 PE on #Nifty. For us, this level comes in at 14000 kind of levels. I also see some strong support coming in at 14200 levels. So, as of now, I would pin my hopes of a decent support at these levels.
  • Important global events coming in this week - 
    • Mon - US Markets closed. Chinese prime rate 
    • Tue - US home sales
    • Wed - British CPI and FED chairman testimony
    • Thus - German mfg PMI, British mfg, services and composite PMI, US Jobs data
    • Fri - British retail sales.
  • Wish you a happy trading week ahead...

1. FII were net sellers for 7818 Cr today, while DII were Buyers for 6086 Cr. A net selling of 1732 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 3968 longs and unwound 1227 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 65746 short calls and   created 61025 short puts. They also bought 95091 long calls and  bought 58331 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15000 followed by 15300 and highest OI for CE is at 16000 followed by 15700. Highest Put writing was seen at 14500-15300 and highest call writing was seen at 15300-16000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 32000 followed by 31500 and highest OI for CE is at 33500 followed by 34000. Highest Put writing was seen at 31500-32500 and highest call writing was seen at 33000-33700 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed today and Europe closed mixed as well

7. US markets closed mixed on Friday with Dow in mild red and Nasdaq in green

8. The breadth of the market was weak yesterday

9. Nifty opened at 15272 and made an intra day high of 15400 and a low of 15183 before closing at 15293 .The range of Nifty for the day was 217 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 32393 and made an intra day high of 32889 and a low of 32290 before closing at 32743 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 599 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 104.468

12. Oil and Gas, Pharma led the losses, while Bank Nifty, Financials and Metals closed in green

13. India VIX increased to 22.7575

14. US 10Y yields are at 3.229

15. Nifty futures saw long unwinding

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short covering

17. US Brent oil increased to 112.97

18. USD / INR increased to 77.958


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