28th Feb' 2022 (Evening)

28th Feb' 2022 (Evening)  -- | Written on 1st Mar' 2022 at 9.45 PM |

• Ok, so i have been talking about the risk of Russia Ukraine for some time. In fact I closed all my positions and was on the fence. On Thu also, I mentioned that the market is highly volatile and expiry trades are risky. 
• Since the fall on Thu, markets have been on a roller coaster ride. Thu the Indices lost 816 points on Nifty and 2164 points on Bank Nifty. Almost 50% of this was recovered on Fri and then on Mon again the Indices gave wild swings.
• The trading range for Nifty was 459 points on Monday, It actually made a decent recovery of 437 points from the day lows, closing the index well in green. Bank Nifty on the other hand closed in red.
• I feel that, following the news coming in, the markets would continue to be volatile. In these volatile and uncertain days, the technical levels carry no meaning and any trends are likely to make wild reversals. These markets are extremely difficult to trade. 
• Moreover I am not an intraday trader and being a positional trader, this volatility actually turns to be extremely dangerous. However i feel that the wild swings offer a decent opportunity to make a reasonable money on low volumes. So i keep investing systematically in the cash market.
• Levels
• 
• As seen in the levels above, you would notice that the levels are all distorted. This is the concern, why the levels and chart based interpretations make it difficult to trade.
• FII sold for 3948Cr in cash and DII bought for 4142Cr in cash. So this pattern continues. On the futures side, the FII created more shorts than longs on Index futures. On the stock futures though they created more longs.
• On the options side, the range is extremely wide viz 16000 to 17500 on Nifty and 35000 to 37000 on Bank Nifty, Aggressive traders and people with low appetite to stay away from the markets can take Low volume trades, near the extremes of this range.
• As mentioned, i would not put more analysis at the moment and would advice to stay away from leveraged trades and rather invest systematically in cash.
• The PMI data coming in from China, UK and US was positive today. While Germany was mildly weak. 
• Dollar Index has soared to 97.2, while the US 10 Y yields have eased to 1.733 now. 

1. FII were net sellers for 3948 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 4142 Cr. A net selling of 194 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 1877 longs and created 10410 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 43441 short calls and   created 24934 short puts. They also bought 62720 long calls and  bought 48540 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16000 followed by 16500 and highest OI for CE is at 17500 followed by 17400. Highest Put writing was seen at 16500 and highest call writing was seen at 17500 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 35000 followed by 36000 and highest OI for CE is at 38000 followed by 37000. Highest Put writing was seen at 35000 and highest call writing was seen at 37000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed yesterday and mostly green today. Europe closed in red both days

7. US markets closed lower yesterday and are trading lower today

8. The breadth of the market was strong on Monday

9. Nifty opened at 16481 and made an intra day high of 16815 and a low of 16356 before closing at 16793 .The range of Nifty for the day was 459 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35938 and made an intra day high of 36270 and a low of 35611 before closing at 36205 .The range of Nifty for the day was 659 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 97.195

12. Led BY metals and Energy, except for Auto and Bank Nifty all sectors closed in green

13. India VIX increased to 28.57

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.733

15. Nifty futures saw long buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw Short buildup

17. US Brent oil increased to 105.97

18. USD / INR increased to 75.753