31st Jan' 2022 (Evening)

31st Jan' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written at 9.00 PM |

  • Specially driven by the rally in US on Friday, Indices opened to strong global cues today. After opening gap up, the indices continued to hover in the positive territory for most of the time. While Bank Nifty for a small time, got into red, Nifty never even came close to Friday close.
  • Nifty made a a small bullish candle with a higher high and higher low compared to yesterday, Bank Nifty actually made an inside candle and is playing in a range. 
  • Nifty 
    • Support
      • First support at 17250
      • Second support at 17075
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 17425
      • Second resistance at 17650
  • Bank Nifty
    • Support
      • First support at 37650
      • Second support at 37975
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 38200
      • Second resistance at 38425
  • While the levels above are technically visible on the charts, my conviction is not high as the markets would be driven more from the news flow, rather than the technical levels. Trending price action may see sudden reversals based on news flow and this makes trading extremely difficult.
  • It is after a long time that the markets have positioned themselves bullishly before a budget. Now this could actually be a good sign. Last year we saw a huge rally building up immediately after the budget. Whether history would repeat itself? I leave it to markets to tell the story.
  • Generally speaking, the government has fiscal space and right before some important elections, we may see a crowd friendly budget and the same could actually be a down side surprise as well. However as I have mentioned multiple times, for cash investors, buy the dips and for leveraged investors be careful.
  • I anyways do not trade intraday and have off loaded all my positions and am at the fence. Will watch the action and only if something irresistible comes, I may plunge into action. Lets see...
  • FII have sold again in cash. they sold for 3624Cr today. Though they unwound a large number of shorts on Index futures and have created some longs as well. So they seem to be brewing some action. I feel their positioning is on Bank Nifty and we may see a breakout there (do not take as an advice).
  • Dollar Index has see some easing and is now below 97, US yields have now see a spike. Would keep a watch on this. US Markets are mixed today, Nasdaq is trading in green and Dow in red.
  • Options OI indicate bullishness. Nifty seems to be stronger as of now, indicating a strong support at 17300. Bank Nifty is hovering at 38000 and needs a breakout on either side. Hopefully on positive side. 

1. FII were net sellers for 3624 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 3648 Cr. A net buying of 24 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 2812 longs and unwound 12294 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 47748 short calls and   created 49289 short puts. They also bought 30005 long calls and  bought 16426 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16000 followed by 16500 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17900. Highest Put writing was seen at 17300 and highest call writing was seen at 17900 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 38000 followed by 36500 and highest OI for CE is at 40000 followed by 39500. Highest Put writing was seen at 38000 and highest call writing was seen at 38000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in green and Europe trading mixed

7. US markets trading mixed with Dow in red and Nasdaq in green

8. The breadth of the market was extremely strong today

9. Nifty opened at 17301 and made an intra day high of 17410 and a low of 17264 before closing at 17339 .The range of Nifty for the day was 146 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 38091 and made an intra day high of 38217 and a low of 37647 before closing at 37975 .The range of Nifty for the day was 570 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 96.983

12. Led by IT, PSUBanks and Auto, almost all sectors closed in green today.

13. India VIX increased to 21.9525

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.800

15. Nifty futures saw short covering

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long buildup

17. US Brent oil eased to 88.75

18. USD / INR eased to 74.657

 

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