28th Jan' 2022 (Evening)

28th Jan' 2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 30th Jan' 2022 at 5.30 PM |

  • So after a very volatile and interesting Jan series, Feb started with the anxiety driven from the Budget 2022. FII started the Jan series with 66% longs on Index futures and closed their longs to enter the Feb series with just 33% longs.
  •  Indices on Friday opened gap up and tried to make further gains, however faced stiff resistance at the day highs and were eventually sold off to cool a bit. Nifty lost almost 300 points and Bank Nifty 800 points in the last two hours of Friday.
  • Nifty
    • Support
      • First support at 17025
      • Second support at 16825
    • Resistance
      • First resistance at 17225
      • Second resistance at 17375
  • Bank Nifty
    • Support
      • First support at 37500
      • Second support at 37000
    • Resistance
      • First resistance at 37975
      • Second resistance at 38400
  • US markets on Friday made a decent up move and that could help improve the sentiment on our streets as well. Expect to see positive Cues tomorrow.
  • However, keep in mind that tomorrow is the penultimate Budget day and we may see a trending move to position before the budget. This may amplify or negate any cues coming in. So be careful. I already mentioned that the indices in short term may behave erratic and be volatile.
  • FII on Friday sold for 5000Cr in cash. So this is the third consecutive day of a 5000Cr plus selling. They also heavily shorted the Index futures. This diluted their long position on Index futures to just 33% long. 
  • DII have been picking up a substantial part of the selling from FII. Still a long gap to be bridged. Interesting part is that the markets have not fallen much. So seems there is some silent buying as well??
  • While the weekly series has a broader writing visible. Options OI indicate a strong put writing on the monthly series. Seems the writers are positive about the final outcome after the volatility is over.
  • There has been a sharp rise in the Dollar Index. It is now above 97. The yields however, are still in the range.
  • Bank Nifty lost some ground against Nifty on Friday, however, citing the budget, i feel that it could turn out to be more volatile than Nifty. However, over a medium term it may outperform Nifty.
  • China mfg PMI declared was positive today. Keep a watch on these events this week :
    • Tue - German mfg PMI, Aus rate decision, British mfg PMI, US mfg PMI, Wed - Non farm employment, Thu - British Composite and service PMI, England interest rate decision, BoE minutes, US jobless claims, US non farm payroll and unemployment data.
    • Chinese markets will be closed for this week.
  • Wish you a happy trading week ahead.....

1. FII were net sellers for 5045 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 3358 Cr. A net selling of 1687 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 2420 longs and created 17745 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 73671 short calls and   created 36189 short puts. They also bought 36239 long calls and  bought 36227 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16500 followed by 16700 and highest OI for CE is at 17500 followed by 17300. Highest Put writing was seen at 16700 and highest call writing was seen at 17300 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 37000 followed by 36000 and highest OI for CE is at 39000 followed by 38000. Highest Put writing was seen at 38000 and highest call writing was seen at 38500 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and European markets closed in red on Friday

7. US markets made decent gains and all three major indices closed well in green

8. The breadth of the market was extremely strong yesterday

9. Nifty opened at 17208 and made an intra day high of 17373 and a low of 17077 before closing at 17101 .The range of Nifty for the day was 296 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 38246 and made an intra day high of 38421 and a low of 37581 before closing at 37689 .The range of Nifty for the day was 840 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 97.218

12. Led by IT and Pharma, except Banking and Auto most of the sectors closed in green

13. India VIX eased to 20.6950

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.778

15. Nifty futures saw short covering

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long unwinding

17. US Brent oil eased to 89

18. USD / INR increased to 75.002

 

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