19th Jan' 2021 (Evening)

19th Jan' 2021 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.00 PM |

  • Markets were choppy today, as they opened to weak global Cues with US closing deep in red and US Futures opening in red and Asian markets also subdued. The charm returned with a recovery in US futures and as the cuts shallowed, the Indian indices also breathed as sigh of relief.
  • Bank Nifty was out performing Nifty heavily, it kind of help strong today as well. With Nifty closing almost 1% down, Bank Nifty was still just 0.5% down today.
  • Nifty 
    • Support
      • First support at 17875
      • Second support at 17700
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 18000
      • Second resistance at 18075
  • Bank Nifty
    • Support
      • First support at 37775
      • Second support at 37450
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 38200
      • Second resistance at 38450
  • FII sold for a heavy 2700Cr today and DII also were net sellers though for a small amount. With an institutional selling of almost 2800Cr, I had expected the market to have closed much deeper today, somehow the indices held up with Nifty losing just 1% and Bank Nifty only 0.5%.
  • Actually this was the reason I took an intraday bearish bet on Bank Nifty today (I normally do not trade intraday). But was stopped out of the position. IT took the maximum hit today. While Financials were sold off, somehow, Bank Nifty could face the storm.
  • FII sold in Index futures also today. With almost 7000 Index longs unwound, they also created 7000 Index shorts today. Interestingly they bought a huge amount of call and put options. Almost 1lac each, i expect tomorrow could be in interesting day. 
  • US yields have risen over the last days and are now well above 1.8. Dollar Index is also back above 95.5. This is again a sign of concern for us.
  • Omicron concerns are now eased out with Cases in Delhi and Mumbai easing substantially. The discussion now is around the budget and the street is keenly watching for the cues coming from there. Markets from here would turn volatile. Tomorrow is a weekly expiry and then the last week of this month will be the week prior to budget. I would expect high volatility during this period. So day traders and leveraged traders specially have to be extremely careful.
  • The options OI indicate a wider trading range now. We may see the second support and resistance above getting relevant in the same week. Range of 17700-18300 and 37000-39000 could be very much on the cards.
  • British CPI data and US building permit data were both positive today.
  • From and earning standpoint, Bajaj Auto delivered a poor result and Bajaj Fin results were encouraging.

1. FII were net sellers for 2704 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 195 Cr. A net selling of 2899 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 7101 longs and created 7004 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 46650 calls and   sold 24156 puts. They also bought 96302 calls and  bought 96052 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17900 and highest OI for CE is at 18300 followed by 18100. Highest Put writing was seen at 17700-17900 and highest call writing was seen at 18000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 38000 followed by 37000 and highest OI for CE is at 38500 followed by 39000. Highest Put writing was seen at 37000-38000 and highest call writing was seen at 38000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in red and Europes closed in green

7. US markets are trading flat to green as of now

8. The breadth of the market was weak  today

9. Nifty opened at 18129 and made an intra day high of 18129 and a low of 17884 before closing at 17938 .The range of Nifty for the day was 245 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 38145 and made an intra day high of 38330 and a low of 37769 before closing at 38041 .The range of Nifty for the day was 561 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 95.550

12. PSU Banks, Energy, Auto and Metals led the markets today, While IT and FMCG were laggards

13. India VIX increased to 17.8175

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.843

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long unwinding

17. US Brent oil increased to 88.82

18. USD / INR eased to 74.377


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