18th Nov' 2021 (Evening)

18th Nov' 2021 (Evening)  --  |  Written on 21st Nov 2021 at 5.00 PM |

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  • On Thu both Nifty and Bank Nifty opened flattish, with Nifty in green and Bank Nifty in red. While Bank Nifty was relatively stronger than Nifty, both indices made bearish candles on a daily chart.
  • Nifty made some attempts to regain from its lows on 29th oct and made an intraday high of 18200 on 15th Nov, Bank Nifty has been weak since then and is now much lower than the low on 29th Oct. 
  • Nifty 
    • Nifty seemed strong after making its low on 29th Oct, however since 15th Nov, has lost steam and has been sliding lower. With almost all sectors specially Metals, Auto, IT, Pharma and Reliance was weak on 18th Nov.
    • Nifty made a bearish candle on the daily and weekly chart and is now slightly above its intraday low on 29th Oct.
    • Support
      • Nifty
        • First support at 17690
        • Second support at 17600
      • Resistance 
        • First resistance at 17850
        • Second resistance at 17940
    • Nifty is at important level. From here if the second support at 17600 is broken down, the next important support comes in at 17450 and would become relevant. 
  • Bank Nifty
    • While Bank Nifty did make a bearish candle on the daily and weekly chart, it was on Thu a little more stable than Nifty, losing just 100 points against 150 point loss of Nifty. 
    • Support
      • First support at 37750
      • Second support at 37400
    • Resistance
      • First resistance at 38200
      • Second resistance at 38450 
    • Bank Nifty is in its strong demand zone of 37400-37800 and in the scenario of Nifty falling below its critical level of 17600, Bank Nifty may get additional support. So from here i would keep an eye on Bank Nifty as the preferred index for a bounce.
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  • Any sustenance of a come back from these levels would depend on the FII mood. They have been selling heavily and consistently in the secondary market. They have pumped in money in the Primary market though. 
  • I mentioned earlier that the money stuck in the IPO's is expected to be released and also that the market valuations have eased from their highs. In light of this, While a fresh momentum and new high's may take time, it would be interesting to see if the current levels become short term bottoms.
  • The market is in a sell on rise pattern and it would face resistance at multiple levels from here.
  • I would consider following levels as important on the rise upwards -
    • Nifty - 17825, 17945, 18025, 18125, 18200 
    • Bank Nifty - 38150, 38450, 38775, 39125, 39550, 40160
    • Keep this levels in mind while placing the trading bets. 
  • FII on Thu sold both in cash and futures, though on the futures side they created both short and long positions. They are still Net long in Index futures and mildly net short in stock futures. Though on the options side they are net short on calls than on puts.
  • The VIX has been easing continuously, so any wild movements may not be expected. However, this being the last week of this expiry, expect some volatility and a mild increase in VIX as well.
  • The options OI indicate a support at 17500 on Nifty and 38000 on Bank Nifty.
  • DII have been buying at lower levels and provide some support, hope this continues.
  • Dollar Index is now at 96.07 and close to its high on Thus of 96.2, if this is taken down again on Monday, I expect the journey towards 97 to complete. So this has a a little more runway to cover and keep our nerves anxious.
  • Keep an eye on the global cues coming in on Monday morning to set the tone for our opening on Monday. As of now, I expect a neutral to negative opening.
  • last week, except for the Japanese GDP and US jobless claims, most of the data was positive. For this week keep a watch on Chinese PLR, US home sales and British PMI (Composite) on Mon, German GDP and mfg PMI, British mfg and services PMI on Tue, German Business climate index, US GDP and home sales on Wed, German GDP, FED and ECB President commentary on Thu. US will have a hoilday on Thu due to thanks giving and a shortened day on Fri.
  • Wish you all a happy trading week ahead....

1. FII were net sellers for 3930 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 1885 Cr. A net selling of 2045 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 4128 longs and created 6161 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 122713 calls and   sold 105605 puts. They also bought 98655 calls and  bought 72340 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17400 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 18500. Highest Put writing was seen at 17900 and highest call writing was seen at 18000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 38000 followed by 37000 and highest OI for CE is at 38000 followed by 40000. Highest Put writing was seen at 38000 and highest call writing was seen at 38000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in red on Thu and Friday

7. US markets closed mixed with Nasdaq in green on Thu and Fri and Dow in red on both days. Nasdaq made a fresh breakout and closed higher, and Dow is now close to its support at 35500

8. The breadth of the market was extremely negative today

9. Nifty opened at 17890 and made an intra day high of 17945 and a low of 17688 before closing at 17764 .The range of Nifty for the day was 257 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 38071 and made an intra day high of 38233 and a low of 37748 before closing at 37976 .The range of Nifty for the day was 485 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 96.075

12. Almost all sectors closed in red on Thu with Metals, Auto leading it. Banking stock were reatively stronger.

13. India VIX eased to 14.8575

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.548

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short buildup


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