13th Oct' 2021 (Evening)

13th Oct' 2021 (Evening)  -- | Written at 11.15 PM  |

  • Yesterday, I mentioned to be cautious. The markets today surprisingly made a strong move. This kind of move on a penultimate expiry day is indicative of maybe a surprise tomorrow on the expiry.
  • In one day, the FII turned bullish from being bearish yesterday. Today the FII bough in cash for a good 937Cr and also created longs on the index, wrote puts and bought calls. A complete reverse stance from yesterday.
  • While Nifty was more secular and was supported by almost all sectors today, especially got support from Auto, Metals and Reliance. Bank Nifty on the other side was capped at 38800, the level i mentioned yesterday.
  • Now this could be attributed to multiple reasons. First is an easing of Dollar Index and Yields in US. The second could be the strong momentum in our markets pulled them back (Remember FII are momentum players) or third (may be skeptical) could be to kill the late entrants, writing puts for expiry tomorrow. 
  • DII sold today and they continue to put a lid on the upside. 
  • US is trading flat as of now, probably ahead of the result season, the investors are cautious. Though, the bias in the US markets is negative. They probably need a reason to correct.
  • The Dollar Index has eased and is now trading closer to 94, the yields in US have also eased below 1.6. 
  • The economic data released today was a bit weak, with US inflation high and British GDP growth lower than expectations. The FOMC minutes today are important to set the tone in short term. An assurance to maintain liquidity for a reasonable time could help support the markets.
  • The options OI indicate a support for Nifty at 18100 and for Bank Nifty at 38500..
  • Nifty
    • Support
      • First support at 18100
      • Second support at 18050
      • Below 18050, we may see Nifty slipping down to 17900 level.
    • Resistance
      • First resistance at 18200
      • Second resistance cannot predict.
  • Bank Nifty
    • Support
      • First support at 38500
      • Second support at 38200
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 38800
      • Second resistance 39100
  • An extremely strong retail participation is responsible for the generation of this momentum. As mentioned yesterday, for this to be sustainable, this has to be complimented by institutional investors, Lets see tomorrow....

1. FII were net buyers for 937 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 431 Cr. A net buying of 506 Cr from the institutional side. 

2. FII's created 11762 longs and unwound 947 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 35432 calls and   sold 40245 puts. They also bought 51666 calls and  bought 26162 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 18000 followed by 17900 and highest OI for CE is at 18200 followed by 18300. Highest Put writing was seen at 18100 and highest call writing was seen at 18400 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 38000 followed by 37500 and highest OI for CE is at 39000 followed by 38500. Highest Put writing was seen at 38500 and highest call writing was seen at 38700 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in green 

7. US markets trading in green as of now. Dow is flat and Nasdaq is half a percent in green

8. The breadth of the market was positive today

9. Nifty opened at 18097 and made an intra day high of 18197 and a low of 18050 before closing at 18161 .The range of Nifty for the day was 147 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 38735 and made an intra day high of 38779 and a low of 38502 before closing at 38635 .The range of Nifty for the day was 277 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 94.052

12. Almost all sectors closed in green today

13. India VIX increased to 16.1

3814. US 10Y yields are at 1.547

15. Nifty futures saw long buildup

16. Bank Nifty saw long buildup


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