01st Oct' 2021 (Evening)

01st Oct' 2021 (Evening)  -- | Written on 3rd Oct' 2021 at 11.30 PM  |

  • Drive by the anxiety from US, the markets opened negative  on Friday and continued to trade in a range. Inflation, Debt ceiling, Bond yields, Fuel and Dollar index were hot discussions on Friday, that kept investors on the edge, ahead of the week end.
  • Energy prices continue to unnerve globally and it is expected that it would continue to do so for some time. Now, this is could be not so good news for India. The oil prices are expected to touch 90$ a barrel by the end of this year.
  • On our markets though we have seen that the FII were selling for some time and they returned with some buying (though small) after some time and they also created some longs in the FnO side. This may be a good sign.
  • Added to it the stability in the US and the indices out there picked up support with Dow closing 1.5% up and S&P and Nasdaq adding close to 1%. The sentiment is expected to be positive tomorrow morning. 
  • Nifty 
    • Nifty opened 90 points down and closed almost at the same level after an intraday dip of 100 points.
    • Nifty made a bullish candle with a long lower shadow indicating support at lower levels.
    • Support
      • First support at 17450
      • Second support at 17325
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 17560 (This may go off in the opening itself)
      • Second resistance at 17675
    • I would see Nifty trading in a range of 17450-17780. A closing above 17780 could provide the necessary support to elevate Nifty towards 18000 plus levels again. Till then we may see a high volatility, but a general positive bias.
  • Bank Nifty
    • Bank Nifty opened apprx 300 point lower and closed almost at the same level after taking an intraday plunge of apprx 300 points.
    • Bank Nifty also made a small bullish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating support at lower levels.
      • Support
        • First support at 36990
        • Second support at 36800
      • Resistance 
        • First resistance at 37675
        • Second resistance at 37890
      • Bank Nifty seems to have a trading range of 36900-37900. A breach of this range on either side could open gates for the next band on the same side.
  • There has been a change in the sentient from US, though the uncertainty hasn't gone away and I expect more volatility could come our way. While the S&P VIX has eased, the buzz around the topics mentioned above is still on.
  • As i mentioned earlier, with FII turning net sellers, DII were supporting the market at lower levels. A slight positive indication on Friday is yet to be confirmed. With Dollar Index easing again on Friday, coupled with some easing on the Yields as well, we may see some comfort on FII liquidity. 
  • The options OI indicate a support at 17500 for Nifty and 37000 for Bank Nifty. So accumulating during dips to these levels may not be a bad idea. However, exercise caution and strict top losses if the levels mentioned above are breached on the lower side.
  • The data coming in last week was mostly bearish. The sentiment was changed by the US PMI data released on Friday. 
  • For this week, the Chinese markets are closed till Thursday. Watch for British PMI data and US non manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. Thursday, look for jobless claims from US and for Friday we have Indian interest rate decision from RBI. While i do not expect a rate change, look for the commentary coming in from RBI. Non farm pay rolls and unemployment data from US on Friday as well.
  • Have a nice week.
1. FII were net buyers for 131 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 613 Cr. A net selling of 482 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 844 longs and unwound 3553 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 47775 calls and   sold 42182 puts. They also bought 52091 calls and  bought 55343 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17400 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17700. Highest Put writing was seen at 17400 and highest call writing was seen at 17500 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 37000 followed by 36000 and highest OI for CE is at 38000 followed by 37500. Highest Put writing was seen at 37000 and highest call writing was seen at 37500-38000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in red and Europe also closed in red

7. US markets closed positive in green

8. The breadth of the market was more or less neutral on Friday

9. Nifty opened at 17531 and made an intra day high of 17557 and a low of 17452 before closing at 17532 .The range of Nifty for the day was 105 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 37140 and made an intra day high of 37299 and a low of 36876 before closing at 37225 .The range of Nifty for the day was 423 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 94.090

12. Realty, IT and Bank Nifty were heavy to pull the indices down, else other stocks closed in green 

13. India VIX reduced to 17.21

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.465

15. Nifty futures saw long unwinding

16. Bank Nifty saw long unwinding


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