29th Sep' 2021 (Evening)

29th Sep' 2021 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.00 PM  |

  • Following the spectacular day markets saw yesterday, the indices could not capitalize on the positive global cues coming in today. US Futures were trading well in the green throughout the day.
  • Our indices however, opened lower and consolidated through the day. Primarily due to buying coming in from the Domestic institutions.
  • Nifty
    • Nifty opened approx 100 points lower and was gradually bought to come in the green for some time in the day. But was again sold off and settled at 17711.
    • Nifty made a bullish inside candle on the daily chart. It is currently holding the low and high of yesterday.
    • Support 
      • First support at 17610
      • Second support at 17525
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 17780
      • Second resistance at 17900
    • It is important to see tomorrow's movement of Nifty, if todays high is respected and a lower low is created, it would be a cause of concern. 17576, would be a sacrosanct stop loss for any fresh longs though.
  • Bank Nifty
    • Bank Nifty opened apprx 350 point lower, was bought and recovered its negative opening partially, though it closed in negative after a small sell off from day's high.
    • Bank Nifty made also a bullish inside candle on a daily chart. Though the upper and lower shadows were longer. Indicating a range play.
    • Support
      • First support at 37550
      • Second support at 37325
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 37925
      • Second resistance at 38100
    • Bank Nifty seems to be placed in a tight control and has to close above 38000 again to resume its upward journey. However, a breach of 37325 could take it back into the 36500-37200 range play.
  • FII again sold for 1400 Cr today, however, as mentioned yesterday the DII came to rescue and a buying of 3000Cr plus from them helped elevate the indices and contain within the previous day.
  • FII continued to create shorts and also took bearish positions on the options side. A continued support from Domestic institutions , could trigger a short squeeze and help trigger a sharp short covering, lets see.
  • The Dollar index, US Yields are further on the rise. Dollar Index is now well above the resistance of 93.6 and is running at a 52W high above 94. The yields have also gone above 1.5 and seem to sustain. This could get serious if the domestic institutions give up. Keep watching the levels as mentioned above.
  • Options OI indicate a wider range, this is indicated by the VIX. Volatility stays, be watchful. Especially if you are an options seller that too if one plays weekly options.
  • I strongly believe there is no concern for the long term or positional investors, We are in a bull market and this is normal. Leveraged, short term traders have to be careful and maintain strict stop losses.
  • September has already seen a long to short ratio going in the favor of shorts for FII and caution is advised. For cash and positional traders, dips are good opportunities to buy. Keep your faith on domestic liquidity. :-)
1. FII were net sellers for 1446 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 3262 Cr. A net buying of 1816 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 7936 longs and created 9363 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 46930 calls and   sold 31220 puts. They also bought 47615 calls and  bought 66348 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17000 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17900. Highest Put writing was seen at 17600 and highest call writing was seen at 18000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 37500 followed by 37000 and highest OI for CE is at 38000 followed by 39000. Highest Put writing was seen at 37500 and highest call writing was seen at 38000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed in red and Europe closed in green

7. US markets are trading flat to green as of now.

8. The breadth of the market was positive today

9. Nifty opened at 17657 and made an intra day high of 17781 and a low of 17608 before closing at 17711 .The range of Nifty for the day was 173 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 37601 and made an intra day high of 37923 and a low of 37371 before closing at 37743 .The range of Nifty for the day was 552 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 94.368

12. Energy, Metals, PSU Banks and Pharma led the markets today. 

13. India VIX increased to 18.84

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.538

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty saw short buildup


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

4th November' 2022 (Evening)

Image
4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  | Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis. I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels. On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears. We will discuss all this, but before that, levels... From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first...
Read more

28th October' 2022 (Evening)

Image
28th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 9.30 PM on 30th October' 2022   | The last month closed on a high note. Starting weak, the month of October saw decent gains and closed almost at month highs. Market was still strong and on the first day of the current series also, the indices were relatively strong.  #Nifty made 4 consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty made a bearish candle after 3 bullish candles, however still made a higher high and a higher low. Levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty are in a range of 17650 to 17900 and 39825 to 41550 respectively. In this range #BankNifty saw some profit booking on Friday, while #Nifty is yet to test the upper level. I expected #Nifty to test 17900 on Friday, however this did not happen. This may probably get breached in the opening tomorrow. Important to see is that will this trigger a profit booking and a rejection of the level or will the level hold. On Friday, the first tr...
Read more

25th October' 2022 (Evening)

25th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 11.00 PM on 26th October' 2022  | 1. FII were net selling for 247 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 872 Cr. A net buying of 625 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 1390 longs and unwound 17862 shorts on the index futures 3. On the option front FII  unwound 7656 short calls and   unwound 28440 short puts. They also closed 34543 long calls and  closed 96232 long Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17800. Highest Put writing was seen at 17700 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 40500 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 41100 and highest call writing was seen at 41500 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mostly in green today and ...
Read more