28th Sep' 2021 (Evening)

28th Sep' 2021 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.00 PM  |

  • Wow, what a day it was today. Markets made a bungee dive today. A deep dip followed by a quick rebound. 
  • Driven by weak global cues, a risk off sentiment was triggered and markets saw aggressive profit booking, however buying came in at lower levels and a spectacular recovery was seen. More than half the days loss was recovered by the day close.
  • Nifty 
    • Nifty opened higher and was sold off from these levels. Lost more than 300 points, picked support at 17576 and recovered close to 170 points and closed at 17748.
    • Nifty made a strong bearish candle on a daily chart. This candle however had a long lower shadow, indicating a strong buying at the lower levels of the day.
    • Support
      • First support at 17650
      • Second support at 17575
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 17776
      • Second resistance at 17850
  • Bank Nifty
    • Bank Nifty opened higher and was sold just like Nifty. Lost more than 1000 points before picking support at 37300 and recovering 600 points to close at 37945.
    • Bank Nifty made a bearish engulfing candle with a long lower shadow. Indicating strong selling at higher levels and also a good support at lower levels.
    • As mentioned day before yesterday, Bank Nifty seems to be in a range until it breaks. This range turned out a little more wider than what i thought. As of now, the high and low of today is a range for Bank Nifty.
    • Support 
      • First support at 37680
      • Second support at 37300
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 38100
      • Second resistance at 38400
    • Bank Nifty continues to be a tricky index as of now. It has a strong potential, though the upside is getting capped repeatedly.
  • FII sold close to 2000Cr today in the cash market and also heavily shorted the indices. There positions in the options side is also bearish. So kind of a consensus on some negativity.
  • The DII as usual have a reverse stance. While there seemed to be some selling coming in from them initially, they bought at lower levels and supported. I expect this to continue.
  • Globally the sentiment is a risk off sentiment from the morning. The US yields and Dollar index have risen. The Dollar Index has breached the 93.6 and i had mentioned in my previous notes that a breakout above 93.6 could trigger a correction. 
  • US is going through some turbulent session as of now and a rise in the Dollar Index and yields coupled with this shakeout is an alert. While I am not immediately concerned, being watchful is recommended.
  • There could be some sectoral rotation in short term.
  • The options OI indicate some volatility ahead. The VIX has also gone up above 18.5. So be ready for some thrilling roller coaster rides ahead. Monthly expiry this week , would only add to this drama. So enjoy...
  • Do not worry, but be cautious is what i would recommend as of now. Watch the US closing today. Domestically the sentiment is positive and the DII seem to be supporting at lower levels, yes, we may see some consolidation and some shake outs at these levels.

1. FII were net sellers for 1957 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 161 Cr. A net selling of 1796 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 785 longs and created 23850 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 35824 calls and   sold 31728 puts. They also bought 64177 calls and  bought 100943 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17000 followed by 17500 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17900. Highest Put writing was seen at 17500 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 37000 followed by 38000 and highest OI for CE is at 39000 followed by 38000. Highest Put writing was seen at 37300 and highest call writing was seen at 38000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in red and Europe closed in red

7. US markets trading in red

8. The breadth of the market was extremely negative today

9. Nifty opened at 17906 and made an intra day high of 17912 and a low of 17576 before closing at 17748 .The range of Nifty for the day was 336 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 38360 and made an intra day high of 38377 and a low of 37315 before closing at 37945 .The range of Nifty for the day was 1062 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 93.722

12. IT, Bank Nifty and auto pulled Nifty down today. Energy and PSU bank and Pharma showed some resilience

13. India VIX increased to 18.54

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.518

15. Nifty futures saw long unwinding

16. Bank Nifty saw short buildup


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

4th November' 2022 (Evening)

Image
4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  | Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis. I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels. On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears. We will discuss all this, but before that, levels... From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first...
Read more

28th October' 2022 (Evening)

Image
28th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 9.30 PM on 30th October' 2022   | The last month closed on a high note. Starting weak, the month of October saw decent gains and closed almost at month highs. Market was still strong and on the first day of the current series also, the indices were relatively strong.  #Nifty made 4 consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty made a bearish candle after 3 bullish candles, however still made a higher high and a higher low. Levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty are in a range of 17650 to 17900 and 39825 to 41550 respectively. In this range #BankNifty saw some profit booking on Friday, while #Nifty is yet to test the upper level. I expected #Nifty to test 17900 on Friday, however this did not happen. This may probably get breached in the opening tomorrow. Important to see is that will this trigger a profit booking and a rejection of the level or will the level hold. On Friday, the first tr...
Read more

25th October' 2022 (Evening)

25th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 11.00 PM on 26th October' 2022  | 1. FII were net selling for 247 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 872 Cr. A net buying of 625 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 1390 longs and unwound 17862 shorts on the index futures 3. On the option front FII  unwound 7656 short calls and   unwound 28440 short puts. They also closed 34543 long calls and  closed 96232 long Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17800. Highest Put writing was seen at 17700 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 40500 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 41100 and highest call writing was seen at 41500 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mostly in green today and ...
Read more