30th July'2021 (Evening)

30th July'2021 (Evening) -- | Written on 1st Aug at 6.00PM |

  • Nifty 
    • opened mildly in green on Friday, made a decent gain and a high of 15862, however was sold off towards the end of the day and closed in red making a small bearish candle on a daily chart.
    • Nifty has stayed in a range of 15640-15920 for the last 36-37 trading sessions. Barring a few occasions of intraday overshoot from this range, it has stayed within this range.
    • On a weekly chart however, Nifty has been making lower highs and lower lows for the last three weeks. Though the closing has always in a range as mentioned above. 
  • Bank Nifty
    • Opened flat on Friday and was sold off , made an attempt to recover towards the second half. Could not cover much ground and closed slightly lower and made a bearish candle on the daily chart.
    • Bank Nifty has stayed in a range of 34400-35800, barring a few occasions of movement out side this range.
    • On a weekly chart Bank Nifty has also made three consecutive candles of lower highs and lower lows. Last two weeks, bank Nifty has been making bearish candles.
  • The rollovers from the July series have been high indicating a sustenance of the trend lately. After a healthy long ratio FII started the July series, the long ratio has gone down. Over the month, FII created apprx 35000 shorts and unwound apprx 15000 longs. So the sentiment may not change suddenly.
  • FII sold for a hefty 3800Cr on Friday in the cash market, while DII did buy 2900Cr from this, it was good level short. Over the month, FII sold for close to 23000Cr in cash market. DII bought for 18000 Cr in July. So a net selling of 5000Cr from the institutions.
  • The economic indicators released last month have been mostly bearish eg. German climate index and new home sales from US were negative. Though the US consumer confidence was high, US GDP and initial job claims were negative. German GDP and Chinese manufacturing PMI were negative.
  • There have been fear of a rise of Delta variant and the Asian countries are grappling with it. After the US GDP set back the Dollar Index slipped again to near 92 levels. So this could support liquidity in the markets.
  • Technically the Indian indices have indicated exhaustion at higher levels, though they have not yet indicated a clear indication to correct. So generally speaking I would avoid leveraged bullish positions. Not immediately shorting in any way, would keep my positions bullish but with strong hedging.
  • Markets have been in general supported at lower levels and sold off at higher levels. I somehow feel that the market texture may slowly be changing from buy on dips to Sell on rallies. Though this is yet to confirm. Net advice - caution for leveraged traders.
  • As far as levels are concerned :
    • Nifty support at 15680 and 15580.
    • Bank Nifty support at 34415 and 34115.
    • Nifty resistance at 15815 and 15900
    • Bank Nifty resistance at 34750 and 35180.
  • Watch for the above levels and target the next level if the level is convincingly broken. My levels are never for intraday trading, so keep this in mind.
  • The options OI indicate a range of 15700-15900 for Nifty and 34500-35000 for Bank Nifty.
  • The volumes on the first day of Aug series were low and the range was narrow. As of now i would consider the Friday highs and Friday lows as immediate levels to watch and their breach indicates short term trends.
  • watch for Europe, Chinese, British and US PMI on Monday, British composite and service PMI on Tuesday, BOE interest rate and US initial jobless claims on Thursday, RBI interest, US non farm payrolls on Friday.
  • Wish you a happy trading month and week ahead. :-)

1. FII were net sellers for 3848 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 2956 Cr. A net selling of 892 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 15564 longs and created 8145 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 64080 calls and   sold 53905 puts. They also bought 47019 calls and  bought 49104 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for CE at 15900 followed by 15800 and highest OI for PE is at 15700 followed by 15800. Highest Put writing was seen at 15700-15800 and highest call writing was seen at 15900 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34500 followed by 34000 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 35500. Highest Put writing was seen at 34500-34600 and highest call writing was seen at 35000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in red and Europe closed in red as well

7. US markets closed in red on Friday

8. The breadth of the market was strong on Friday

9. Nifty opened at 15800 and made an intra day high of 15862 and a low of 15744 before closing at 15763 .The range of Nifty for the day was 118 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 34698 and made an intra day high of 34738 and a low of 34445 before closing at 34584 .The range of Nifty for the day was 293 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 92.095

12. Banking, Energy and metals lost and most of the other sectors gained through the day.

13. India VIX reduced to 12.80

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.226

15. Nifty futures saw long unwinding

16. Bank Nifty saw long unwinding


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