2nd July'2021 (Evening)

2nd July'2021 (Evening) -- | Written on 4th July - 8.15PM |

  • Markets on Friday opened flat and then consolidated for a while before showing some signs of recovery. While Nifty and BankNifty, both, did rise and closed above its opening level and made a small bullish candle on the daily chart. Actually, Nifty seems stronger.
  • Analyzing the charts on multiple time frames, we see, On an hourly chart, Nifty has kind of made a decent recovery and BankNifty has topped again.
  • The closing of Nifty was slightly above its 20DEMA at 15682 (while intraday it went lower) and BankNifty inspite of making a slightly bullish candle, closed below its 20DEMA at 34849.
  • 50DEMA for Nifty stands at 15399 (it does'nt seem to be going there). 50DEMA of BankNifty stands at 34426 and is a possible level.
  • Swing supports for Nifty may get revised to Friday's low if reversal is confirmed tomorrow, While for BankNifty the swing support stays at 34525.
  • Technically the MACD on weekly chart shows exhaustion for both Nifty and BankNifty. Citing a low VIX, I Expect the Markets to stay rangebound unless the range of 15450-15915 on Nifty and 33908-35576 on BankNifty is breached on either side.
  • I believe the markets is waiting for a trigger for this to happen. Now this could come from the upcoming earning season or some tightening of restrictions (as we are seeing).
  • Last week the global economic data was kind of mixed, but over all positive and encouraging. 
    • US - jobs data positive, Unemployment rate negative. Home sales positive.
    • Europe - British GDP negative and German PMI was positive.
    • Watch my tweet separately for important events next week.
  • Overall I am positive on the Global side. Some overhangs on our markets though would be Covid restrictions tightening, Dollar Index rising (already convincingly above 92 now), Oil prices rising (Brent closed above 76Dollars on Friday) and any indication towards tightening of liquidity.
  • In the FnO side, both Nifty and BankNifty saw short covering. As mentioned earlier Nifty seems stronger and may see a follow through on Monday (this has to be confirmed though), BankNifty still seems weak. 
  • Nifty above 15755 tomorrow may trigger a move towards 15840 and then towards 15915. BankNifty move upwards only trigger above 35200 towards 35600. 
  • Lower levels already mentioned above.
  • FII unwound both on long and short side in index futures, probably due to a long weekend as the US markets are closed on Monday. Their unwinding of long calls is also a similar indication. 
  • Would be important to watch the global cues coming in tomorrow morning.

1. FII were net sellers for 982 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 930 Cr. A net selling of 52 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 5372 longs and unwound 6485 shorts on the indices

3. On the option front FII  sold 16551 calls and   sold 26601 puts. They also unwound 9227 calls and  bought 1562 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15700 followed by 15600 and highest OI for CE is at 15800 followed by 16000. Highest Put writing was seen at 15600 and highest call writing was seen at 15800 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34500 followed by 34000 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 35500. Highest Put writing was seen at 34700 and highest call writing was seen at 35500 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed mixed as well.

7. US markets closed ingreen on Friday

8. The breadth of the market was positive today

9. Nifty opened at 15705 and made an intra day high of 15738 and a low of 15635 before closing at 15722 .The range of Nifty for the day was 103 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 34728 and made an intra day high of 34894 and a low of 34632 before closing at 34809 .The range of Nifty for the day was 262 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 92.248

12. Metals was one index, that was beaten up. Pharma and Realty supported the markets.

13. India VIX decreased to 12.09

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.431

15. Nifty futures saw short covering

16. Bank Nifty saw short covering


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