19th July'2021 (Evening)

19th July'2021 (Evening) -- | Written at 11.30PM |

  • As expected and mentioned in yesterdays notes, Indices opened gap down and opened precisely at the second level support (First I mentioned will be breached in the gap down itself).
  • First reaction was a bit of pull back with some rise on the indices and then came the second round of selling, taking the indices down again. With some recovery at the day end, both the indices made Doji kind of candles, indicating a lack of direction from the current levels.
  • This uncertainty is driven from selling by FII at higher levels and buying by DII at lower levels. This continued today as well.
  • FII though are now extremely bearish and again reversed their positions in the FnO segment, while selling heavily in cash.
  • The Global sentiment was extremely weak today and this continued into European and US markets. Europe closed almost 2% down and US is trading 2% down as of now. 
  • A continuous slide in these markets is driven from recovery concerns on the back of a fear of Covid surge. This kind of trigerred a global risk off sentiment and heavy selling is being seen across the globe.
  • On the options side also the OI build up is weak on the put side and heavy call writing was seen. Also Bank Nifty saw some more shirt buildup today. Globally the Banking stocks seem to be weak in general.
  • Nifty has held the second level support today and Bank Nifty is holding the third level support I mentioned yesterday. 
  • The sentiment is weak as of now and if US closes on this note, it may ignite another gap down opening tomorrow. While aggressive intraday selling and shorting is not seen today as the levels were respected. 
  • We now need to look at the important supports from here.
    • Nifty - 15645, 15450
    • BankNifty - 35070, 34650
  • As mentioned earlier, Nifty weak only below 15450 and Bank Nifty is weak below 33900. Till then some fresh entries are ok at these dips.
  • I personally feel that the VIX is low and todays reaction in our markets was also driven from the standpoint that we were sitting at all time highs and markets were looking for a reason for correction.
  • The Options OI is still not spread very wide and the indices ae still within the larger i have been mentioning earlier. We would wait for a breach to decide the next course.

1. FII were net sellers for 2198 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 1047 Cr. A net selling of 1151 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's Unwound 19377 longs and created 6934 shorts on the indices

3. On the option front FII  sold 70548 calls and   sold 13690 puts. They also bought 14494 calls and  bought 39895 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15700 followed by 15500 and highest OI for CE is at 15800 followed by 16000. Highest Put writing was seen at 15500 and highest call writing was seen at 15800 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 35000 followed by 34500 and highest OI for CE is at 36000 followed by 37000. Highest Put writing was seen at 35000 and highest call writing was seen at 35000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in red and Europe also closed in red

7. US markets trading in red as of now

8. The breadth of the market was extremely weak

9. Nifty opened at 15754 and made an intra day high of 15836 and a low of 15707 before closing at 15752 .The range of Nifty for the day was 129 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35070 and made an intra day high of 35347 and a low of 34899 before closing at 35079 .The range of Nifty for the day was 448 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 92.835

12. Except realty and Pharma, all sectors closed in red. Banking led the drag today.

13. India VIX increased to 12.68

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.191

15. Nifty futures saw long unwinding

16. Bank Nifty saw short buildup


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