5th Mar'2021 (Evening)

5th Mar'2021 (Evening)

  • The market kept surprising on Friday. Honestly it was getting difficult to sense the movement. Somehow managed to keep my positions in profit. 
  • FII sold in cash on Friday. The shorts created on Thursday were built up on Friday and the longs unwound on Thursday, were created again on Friday. While they are still net long, I feel their position is somewhat dicy. 
  • The yields and Dollar index is spooking these institutions again, so their movements are somewhat tentative. Also, the liquidity in the options markets has biased slightly, as the new margin rules have reduced sellers, while the buyers are same or maybe increased. Look at the option premiums.
  • Commodity prices have eased a bit, but oil is rising. Now, oil, bonds and dollar index rising are all a bad combination for our markets. Looking at the options OI and the buying coming in at lower levels, i feel there is support on the lower levels. 
  • Markets are a bit confusing, i feel we could see a rangebound movement for some time. Sometimes, some wild movements could also be seen. With VIX rising again, some concerns in short term exist. Also, with VIX so high, it is very difficult to sell options. 
  • Recommend, lower leverage and hedging is extremely important.
  • Nifty range is expected to be 14500 to 15500. BankNifty seems weak, range seems to be 34000 to 36000.
  • Wednesday low of 14995 is breached on Nifty, but the next support of 14760 holds, lets see.
  • Bank Nifty is already breached on the lower side, next support is at 34658. If this is breached, it could be concerning. 

1. FII were net sellers for 2014 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 1191 Cr. A net selling of 3205 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 5067 longs and created 3872 shorts on the indices

3. On the option front FII  sold 43607 calls and   sold 20093 puts. They also bought 36037 calls and  bought 29017 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 14000 followed by 14500 and highest OI for CE is at 15500 followed by 16000. Highest Put writing was seen at 14500 and highest call writing was seen at 15500 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34000 followed by 33000 and highest OI for CE is at 36000 followed by 37000. Highest Put writing was seen at 34000 and highest call writing was seen at 38500 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in red and European markets also closed in red

7. US markets closed in green on Friday.

8. The breadth of the market was weak.

9. Nifty opened at 14977 and made an intra day high of 15092 and a low of 14862 before closing at 14938 .The range of Nifty for the day was 230 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 35458 and made an intra day high of 35616 and a low of 34893 before closing at 35228 .The range of Nifty for the day was 723 points.

11. UD Dollar Index is trading at 92.018

12. All sectors closedin red

13. India VIX increased to 25.56 

14. US 10Y yields are at 1.577


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