22nd Jan'2021 (Evening)

22nd Jan'2021 (Evening) 

  • As mentioned a day earlier in my post, the data was all over the place, hence a price action watch was necessary to create a view. The worry came true on Friday, seeing the kind of fall and other pointer mentioned below.
  • Markets opened weak and after moving a slight up move, started sliding following global cues. The slide got intensified and though a very minor pull back came in the last hour, it was sold out and market closed at the lower end of the day.
  • FII have sold in the cash market and also reversed their positions in futures and options. They created 12000 plus shorts and unwound close to 6000 longs. Their net position on futures longs went down from 67:33 to 59:41.
  • FII also sold more calls then puts and bought more puts than calls, indicating extreme caution.
  • DII as usual contributed to the selling.
  • The sentiment is dented as of now.
  • Markets are at their support now. Nifty at a range of 14250-14350 and while Bank Nifty has breached its erstwhile support at 31850 and then 31550, it is now just above 31000. 
  • As mentioned in my blog earlier, Indices if breach their range of ATH and the lows on 18th Jan would decide the direction. While Nifty is still in that range, BankNifty has breached it. BankNifty is particularly weak.
  • Nifty and BankNifty have a strong support at 14250 and 31000 respectively. Need to watch if these are held, else a further down slide opens up.
  • I feel this volatility would remain till budget and also the current month expiry. One has to be extremely cautious during this time.

1. FII were net sellers for 635 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 1290 Cr. A net selling of 1925 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 5862 longs and created 12280 shorts on the indices

3. On the option front FII  sold 46531 calls and   sold 11657 puts. They also bought 7962 calls and  I5ought 33952 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 14000 followed by 13500 and highest OI for CE is at 15000 followed by 14700. Reasonable Put writing was seen at 14400 and below and reasonable call writing was seen at 14400 and above levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 31000 followed by 30000 and highest OI for CE is at 32000 followed by 32500. Reasonable Put writing was seen at 31300 and below and reasonable call writing was seen at 31500 and above levels. 

6. Asian markets closed in red today and Europe also closed in red

7. US markets closed in red

8. The breadth of the market was etremely negative today

9. Nifty opened at 14583 and made an intra day high of 14619 and a low of 14357 before closing at 14371 .The range of Nifty for the day was 262 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 32088 and made an intra day high of 32131 and a low of 31119 before closing at 31167 .The range of Nifty for the day was 1012 points.

11. UD Dollar Index was trading at 90.21

12. Market fell across all sectors. Banking, Metals were particularly weak. Though the auto sector was strong.

13. India VIX rose again to 22.42


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