12th Aug'2022 (Evening)

12th Aug' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written on 15th Aug' 2022 at 11.00 PM  |

  • The Indices made bullish candles again on Friday. While #Nifty saw a dip and the same was bought, #BankNifty was more or less bullish through the day. #Nifty made a bullish candle with a decent upper and lower wick, indicating a range, #BankNifty made a bullish candle with a long lower shadow indicating support from the lower levels of the day.
  • Nifty faced some resistance at the higher level of the day, though its travers to the levels I mentioned earlier seem to be intact. So, while #Nifty still has to take down 17800, #BankNIfty has already taken down the strong resistance i mentioned in my notes. Primarily driven by #ICICIBank, it seems extremely strong as of now.
  • Lets look at the levels now :
  • Looking at the levels above, I feel, #Nifty will finish its journey to 17800 tomorrow and the larger question for it will be, where will it go from there? Now the answer to this partially sits in the answer to the next question and that is Where does #BankNifty go from here?
  • #BankNifty is now very close to its next level and that is 39425, if this is taken down, we are looking at targeting the all time high of 40000 plus range. Both #Nifty and #BankNifty need a breather and a cool off, the global markets have not been allowing this. 
  • Honestly I do not have an answer to where do the Indices go from here. From my perspective, a long bet I kept making was that whether we will hit 14600 before making a bullish move to an all time high, was still intact. While it may be too late, we will have to see if the levels mentioned above now hold.
  • These critical levels are 17800 on #Nifty and 39425 on #BankNifty. A close above these levels, would open gates to 18125 on #NIfty and 41000 on #BankNifty. I feel the indices have left a lot of gaps on this rally from 15150 to 17800 and these needs to be plugged. So while I would be cautious, I would be cautiously bearish from these levels.
  •  #FII have been buying lately and they were extremely active on Friday, making a buy of 3000Cr plus and also cut shorts on Index Futures and made fresh longs. There net long position on #Index futures is now better than, when they started the month.
  • On the options side, FII wrote slightly more puts than calls and so have a bullish skew. The OI indicate a support at 17600 for #Nifty and 39000 for #BankNifty.
  • I expect a gap up opening tomorrow and would watch the action before taking any fresh call. Meanwhile also keep an eye on the US closing today and the Global cues coming in tomorrow. They would help set the tone at the levels we will open tomorrow.
  • #DollarIndex is back above 106 now and is trading at 106.28, the USD?INR pair is also trading at 79.5. Oil is slightly eased and is at 94.92.
  • Look for following events this week :
    • Mon - Japanese GDP at 0.5 is lower than expected and Chinese Industril prod at 3.8% is lower than expectation
    • Tue - British earnings Index, US Building permits and German economic sentiment
    • Wed - British CPI and US retail sales data. FOMC minutes
    • Thu - Euro CPI and US jobless claims
    • Fri - British retail sales.
  • Wish you happy trading this week....

1. FII were net buyers for 3040 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 839 Cr. A net  buying of 2201 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 8215 longs and unwound 1916 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 47064 short calls and   created 53174 short puts. They also bought 84079 long calls and  bought 58417 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 17800 followed by 18000. Highest Put writing was seen at 17600 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 39000 followed by 38000 and highest OI for CE is at 39000 followed by 40000. Highest Put writing was seen at 39000 and highest call writing was seen at 39000-40000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed on both Friday and today.

7. US markets closed in green on Friday and tradin in green as of now.

8. The breadth of the market was positive on Friday

9. Nifty opened at 17659 and made an intra day high of 17724 and a low of 17597 before closing at 17698 .The range of Nifty for the day was 127 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 38942 and made an intra day high of 39088 and a low of 38739 before closing at 39042 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 349 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 106.287

12. Except Pharma, IT and FMCG all sectors closed in green. Lead by Metals and Energy

13. India VIX increased to 17.6075

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.786

15. Nifty futures saw long buildup

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short buildup

17. US Brent oil eased to 94.92

18. USD / INR is at 79.510


 

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