15th July' 2022 (Evening)

15th July' 2022 (Evening)  --  |  Written at 5.00 PM on 17th July' 2022  |

  • Market movements have been cryptic lately. After making a swing low of 15858, #Nifty consolidate and on Friday made an inside candle on the daily chart. From 16275 to 15858, this was a good 400 plus point slip in just 4 days.
  • #BankNifty also made almost similar Inside candle on Friday on a daily chart. Though it seems a bit more vulnerable compared to #Nifty.
  • Lets quickly see the levels before discussing further....
  • #Nifty has some small supports at 16000 and 15950 before its first support at 15925. On the upper side, a gap up opening is possible and it may open above its first resistance of 16075. So important to watch if 16150 levels holds and if #Nifty starts taking out 16275. Advice to go long only if #Nifty starts trading above 16275.
  • On #BankNifty we may open around 34900 and that is its first resistance level. So need to watch if this levels holds, if it does we may prepare for a move till 35500.
  • In general I am not expecting strong moves as of now. The market may remain rangebound between the levels mentioned above, however following the Friday's move, if the US Futures open strong tomorrow, we may see some short covering on our indices.
  • #FII long exposure is now almost at the same levels as we started in this month. On Friday also the #FII sold in cash for 1650Cr and created more shorts than longs on Index futures. So I am not expecting any strong move there. We may see a strong up move only once we see some cash coming in from #FII.
  • #DII have been holding this market strong from the levels we saw at 15150 and then 15500. They seem to be carrying a conviction to hold these levels. While we may see some more consolidation at the current levels, I have not dropped my target of 14600 on #Nifty.
  • It is important to note that the two indices especially strong are #NiftyAuto and #NiftyFMCG. On the other hand weaker indices are #NiftyIT, Reliance and #BankNifty. I see #NiftyAuto and #NiftyFMCG approaching resistance and #NiftyIT and #Reliance at their supports. 
  • Possible Scenarios 
    • #niftyAuto and #NIftyFMCG breakout on higher side and #Reliance and #NIftyIT pick support, we may see a breakout on #Nifty here. 
    • #NiftyAuto and #NiftyFMCG are rejected and #Reliance and #NiftyIT breakout on lower side, we see a strong bearish movement.
    • Else the side movement continues. So keep an eye on these sectors.
  • The options OI indicate range of 16000-16500 for #Nifty and 34000-35000 for #BankNifty.
  • From an earnings standpoint, #HDFCBank posted strong results and this should help the markets a bit. 
  • Globally keep an eye on these events :
    • Mon - Japan Closed
    • Tue - British Earnings INdex, US building permits and Euro CPI
    • Wed - British CPI and US home sale.
    • Thu - Bank of Japan outlook report, ECB monetary policy statement, US jobless claims
    • Fri - Euro and British PMI data and US retails sales data.
  • Wish you a happy trading week ahead....

1. FII were net sellers for 1649 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 1059 Cr. A net selling of 590 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 342 longs and created 5351 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 63326 short calls and   created 59158 short puts. They also bought 74474 long calls and  bought 91520 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 16000 followed by 15900 and highest OI for CE is at 16600 followed by 16500. Highest Put writing was seen at 16000 and highest call writing was seen at 16200-16600 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34000 followed by 34500 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 35500. Highest Put writing was seen at 34500 and highest call writing was seen at 34500 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in green

7. US markets closed in green on Friday

8. The breadth of the market was strong today

9. Nifty opened at 16010 and made an intra day high of 16066 and a low of 15927 before closing at 16049 .The range of Nifty for the day was 139 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 34734 and made an intra day high of 34899 and a low of 34463 before closing at 34682 .The range of Bank Nifty for the day was 436 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 107.825

12. Auto and FMCG were leading segments today, while Metals was a laggard

13. India VIX eased to 17.5975

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.928

15. Nifty futures saw short covering

16. Bank Nifty futures saw long buildup

17. US Brent oil increased to 101.13

18. USD / INR increased to 79.721


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