1st April' '2022 (Evening)

1st April' '2022 (Evening)  --  | Written on 3rd April' 2022 at 6.30 pm |

  • The start of April series was on an offensive on Friday. With Nifty taking down 17500 and Bank Nifty taking down 36850 levels. I felt and tweeted on Friday that Nifty is heading towards 17650 and Bank Nifty would probably take down 36850. As mentioned, Nifty closed above 17650 and Bank Nifty actually made higher gains and closed at 37148.
  • The indices saw a heavy short covering with a total reduction of 94000 in the open interest of Index futures. Nifty lost around 23.5% and Bank Nifty saw a reduction of 37.5% in the combined open Interest.
  • The levels at which the market is standing now is close its next resistance levels. Nifty level was 17650 and it closed just above it. Bank Nifty level was 37600 and it closed short of it after making an intraday high of 36242. 
  • The next target of Nifty is 17800 and Bank Nifty is 37800. It is highly possible that this may come up in this week itself. While a steep run up may also trigger some consolidation at the current level. I would keep a bullish bias with a buy on dips strategy till the indices are above their second support mentioned in the levels below.
  • Levels 
  • FII rolled over in the April series unwinding a huge amount of shorts and also buying in cash at the same time. The buying continued on Friday. Though they created some shorts again on Index futures. The FII created a large number of put shorts, indicating a base build up at the current levels. 
  • The return of buying from FII side is a welcome sign and hope that this remains consistent. A sharp fall in the volatility Index also indicates some sentiment improvement. 
  • Globally the sentiment was also positive on Friday, while i do not have a strong reason to believe this. The war is on, Inflation risks stand and Covid in China is rising. Yes, technically the major indices like Dow is close to an important level of 35800 and if the markets pull above it, a sharp rise further is possible. Watch the opening tomorrow in US and keep and eye on this level.
  • The Dollar Index is at 98.5, The US 10 Y yields are at 2.389 (slightly lower than its high of 2.557), however both are kind of factored in the pricing.
  • Oil is at 104 USD though USD/INR at 75.95 is slightly higher.
  • Global cues coming in tomorrow would be important to watch for the sentiment tomorrow.
  • watch for the following events this week. Mon : China market is closed, Tue : China markets is closed, PMI data from Britain and US Wed : Crude oil inventory and FOMC min from US Thu : Jobs data from US Fri : India interest rate decision.
  • The earnings season for India will kick off from the week next, with Important results of TCS, Infosys and HDFC Bank. Keep watching.
  • Wishing you a happy trading week ahead, keep safe and be careful

1. FII were net Buyers for 1909 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 183 Cr. A net buying of 1726 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 3057 longs and created 6329 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  created 17483 short calls and   created 66368 short puts. They also created 21171 long calls and  created 33503 long Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17400 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17600. Highest Put writing was seen at 17400 and highest call writing was seen at 17600 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 36500 followed by 36000 and highest OI for CE is at 38000 followed by 37500. Highest Put writing was seen at 36500 and highest call writing was seen at 38000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed on Friday and Europe closed in green

7. US markets closed in green on Friday

8. The breadth of the market was extremely strong today

9. Nifty opened at 17436 and made an intra day high of 17703 and a low of 17422 before closing at 17670 .The range of Nifty for the day was 281 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 36298 and made an intra day high of 37209 and a low of 36242 before closing at 37148 .The range of Nifty for the day was 967 points.

11. US Dollar Index is at 98.540

12. led by PSU banks, almost all sectors closed in green

13. India VIX eased to 18.4350

14. US 10Y yields are at 2.389

15. Nifty futures saw short covering

16. Bank Nifty futures saw short covering

17. US Brent oil eased to 104.35

18. USD / INR increased to 75.954


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