27th Oct' 2021 (Evening)

27th Oct' 2021 (Evening)  --  | Written at 11.00 PM |

  • Opening to mixed global cues, Markets reacted sluggishly and lost some ground today. While I do not see this as a concern in general, it would be important to look at  this in conjunction with the F&O stats for today.
  • Nifty 
    • Nifty opened slightly in green and consolidated for some time with some minor gains, but in the last hour and a half, it lost ground and slipped by 120 points plus to close at 18210 (slightly above the first support i mentioned yesterday).
    • Support
      • First support at 18150
      • Second support at 18050
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 18260
      • Second resistance at 18325
    • Nifty futures had a short buildup today and the buildup was around 18325 levels. If the index rises above this level, it may trigger some short covering. Tomorrow being the monthly closing, be careful.
  • Bank Nifty
    • Bank Nifty opened flat and double tested the day top of 41347 twice before correcting to 40750 (its second support mentioned yesterday). Though it closed with a minor recovery of 100 points from there.
    • Support
      • First support at 40750
      • Second support at 40500
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 41000
      • Second resistance at 41350
    • Bank Nifty has been consolidating within the large bullish candle of Monday. It has not been able to breach the 41350 level since yesterday. A breach of this level could lift the index back close to 41800 levels. However, the heavy shorting of Bank Nifty today would put strong hurdles for this.
  • FII again sold in cash today (though a bit less) for 1913Cr. They also shorted the index futures heavily. 23000 shorts were added by FII today on the index futures. Though I believe most of this is on Bank Nifty and a follow through of this would be required, else we may see some short covering on Bank Nifty in the second half tomorrow.
  • As mentioned yesterday as well,  Bank Nifty has been consolidating and this may get breached if the shorts today do not get a follow through tomorrow. I believe the rally on Monday was because of the Euphoria on ICICI Bank and that hasnt got a follow through. ICICIBank saw profit booking yesterday and some short covering today. 
  • HDFC Bank was silently consolidating all this time. So it would be important to watch its movement tomorrow.
  • Options OI indicate a strong put standing at 18000 and heavy call writing at 18300. This could be pretty well the closing range tomorrow. For Bank Nifty the put writers stand at 41000 and 40000, call writing is seen at 41200. I would expect the closing to be between 40500 and 41200.
  • I would expect tomorrow's session to be volatile. 
  • Dollar Index has eased and the US yields have also eased below 1.6, with oil also easing out, this could be a good positive for us. However, watch for US close today. 
  • I believe the buy on dips is intact and the domestic liquidity is strong. Though the DII did not buy as much as the selling by FII today.  I feel their buying at lower levels is intact. 
  • The trading range continues to be 18050 to 18400 on Nifty and 40500-41750 for Bank Nifty. A breach of the support levels above nullifies this view.

1. FII were net sellers for 1913 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 472 Cr. A net selling of 1441 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's unwound 3902 longs and created 23131 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 76601 calls and   sold 7757 puts. They also bought 64347 calls and  bought 33004 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 18000 followed by 18200 and highest OI for CE is at 18300 followed by 18500. Highest Put writing was seen at 17950 and highest call writing was seen at 18300 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 41000 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 40800 and highest call writing was seen at 41200 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mostly in red and Europe closed in red

7. US markets trading mixed with Dow in red and Nasdaq in green

8. The breadth of the market was negative today

9. Nifty opened at 18295 and made an intra day high of 18342 and a low of 18167 before closing at 18210 .The range of Nifty for the day was 175 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 41234 and made an intra day high of 41347 and a low of 40750 before closing at 40874 .The range of Nifty for the day was 597 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 93.767

12. Media and Metals led the fall today, followed by Bank Nifty and Reliance. PSU Banks outperformed 

13. India VIX increased to 16.8275

3814. US 10Y yields are at 1.536

15. Nifty futures saw short buildup

16. Bank Nifty saw short buildup


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

4th November' 2022 (Evening)

Image
4th November' 2022 (Evening)   --  | Written at 8.00 PM on 6th November' 2022  | Publishing the notes after a gap today. So first sorry for that. Having a full time day job, brings its own set of challenges and sometimes, the work pressure makes it extremely difficult to squeeze time to analyze and publish the analysis. I mentioned in the previous notes that a major resistance at 17900 will be breached and advised to watch the price action. The indices pleasantly obliged and have been holding strong at these levels. On Friday also, #Nifty made a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. It has also ended the weekly candle strong on a bullish note. #BankNifty is showing some exhaustion and is witnessing a brutal tug off war between bulls and bears. We will discuss all this, but before that, levels... From the levels above, 18200 seems to be a resistance level for #Nifty and 41550 the resistance for #BankNifty. However, if we compare the range of first support to first...
Read more

28th October' 2022 (Evening)

Image
28th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 9.30 PM on 30th October' 2022   | The last month closed on a high note. Starting weak, the month of October saw decent gains and closed almost at month highs. Market was still strong and on the first day of the current series also, the indices were relatively strong.  #Nifty made 4 consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. #BankNifty made a bearish candle after 3 bullish candles, however still made a higher high and a higher low. Levels : Both #Nifty and #BankNifty are in a range of 17650 to 17900 and 39825 to 41550 respectively. In this range #BankNifty saw some profit booking on Friday, while #Nifty is yet to test the upper level. I expected #Nifty to test 17900 on Friday, however this did not happen. This may probably get breached in the opening tomorrow. Important to see is that will this trigger a profit booking and a rejection of the level or will the level hold. On Friday, the first tr...
Read more

25th October' 2022 (Evening)

25th October' 2022 (Evening)   --   |  Written at 11.00 PM on 26th October' 2022  | 1. FII were net selling for 247 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 872 Cr. A net buying of 625 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 1390 longs and unwound 17862 shorts on the index futures 3. On the option front FII  unwound 7656 short calls and   unwound 28440 short puts. They also closed 34543 long calls and  closed 96232 long Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 17500 followed by 17600 and highest OI for CE is at 18000 followed by 17800. Highest Put writing was seen at 17700 and highest call writing was seen at 17800 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 40000 followed by 40500 and highest OI for CE is at 42000 followed by 41500. Highest Put writing was seen at 41100 and highest call writing was seen at 41500 levels.  6. Asian markets closed mostly in green today and ...
Read more