18th Oct' 2021 (Evening)

18th Oct' 2021 (Evening)  --  | Written on 19th Oct' 2021 at 5.45 AM |

  • Both Nifty and Bank Nifty made new highs today with Nifty opening at an all time high of 18500 and making an intraday high of 18543 and Bank Nifty opening at 39794 and making an intraday high of 39947.
  • However the opening levels could not sustain and profit booking was seen on both the indices. Though this selling was not heavy and the indices could sustain the gap up, pressure was seen towards the upper range of the markets today.
  • Nifty
    • Nifty made a small bearish candle on the daily chart with a narrow trading range. Intraday the chart made an attempt to breach the high twice and made a double top, but failed to breach. So as mentioned yesterday, a new range is developing now. 
    • In extreme short term Nifty has to hold its low of 18445 to make a fresh attempt to take off 18500 convincingly, else a slight slip towards 18350 is possible.
    • Support
      • First support at 18450
      • Second support at 18350
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 18550
      • Second resistance at 18625
    • Seeing a violent expansion over the last 3 days and some fatigue at higher levels now, I Expect some consolidation at the current range.
  • Bank Nifty
    • Bank Nifty made a Doji kind of candle, indicating lack of direction at the current level. The gap up opening could not sustain here as well, though the index closed at a fresh high.
    • Again, if Bank Nifty holds its day low of 39560, it can make a fresh attempt to take off 39947, however in short term this does not seem to be possible.
    • Support
      • First support at 39550
      • Second support at 39200
    • Resistance 
      • First resistance at 39950
      • Second support at 40200
  • FII bought for 500Cr in cash, however on the futures and options side, their positions were bearish. Having unwound some longs on index futures and created some fresh shorts and buying some puts indicate a slight concern for some hedging and protection. As mentioned above this synergizes with some consolidation at the current levels.
  • After strong moves over the last three days, Some volatility at the current levels can be expected. This indication sits in the VIX rising to above 17 again. These dips can be good entry points. one can try to buy close to the support levels mentioned above as per their strategies.
  • Dollar Index and US yields do not pose any threat to liquidity as of now. Though Oil continues to hover near 85USD and i believe this is encouraging the bulls of a strong economic activity.
  • The economic data from China was not good and that probably kept a lid on the rage of bulls. The GDP was below 5 and  this also reflected in the US trading over the night. Dow and Nasdaq both were under pressure, Though Nasdaq kind of closed strong, Dow was under pressure.
  • The options OI indicate a trading range of 18300-18500 on Nifty and a wider range of 38000-40000 on Bank Nifty. I expect the trading range of BankNifty to be from 38500-39950.

1. FII were net buyers for 512 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 1703 Cr. A net selling of 1191 Cr from the institutional side.

2. FII's created 4933 longs and created 813 shorts on the index futures

3. On the option front FII  sold 59560 calls and   sold 54983 puts. They also bought 35845 calls and  bought 60961 Puts.

4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 18300 followed by 18500 and highest OI for CE is at 18500 followed by 18600. Highest Put writing was seen at 18500 and highest call writing was seen at 18500-19000 levels.

5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 38000 followed by 39000 and highest OI for CE is at 40000 followed by 41000. Highest Put writing was seen at 39500 and highest call writing was seen at 39800-40000 levels. 

6. Asian markets closed mixed and Europe closed in red. 

7. US markets closed mixed with Dow mildly in red and Nasdaq in green

8. The breadth of the market was positive yesterday

9. Nifty opened at 18500 and made an intra day high of 18543 and a low of 18445 before closing at 18477 .The range of Nifty for the day was 98 points.

10. Bank Nifty opened at 39794 and made an intra day high of 39947 and a low of 39569 before closing at 39684 .The range of Nifty for the day was 378 points.

11. US Dollar Index is trading at 93.927

12. Except Auto everything closed in green

13. India VIX increased to 17.19

3814. US 10Y yields are at 1.59

15. Nifty futures saw long buildup

16. Bank Nifty saw long buildup


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