EquityCompound2

29th Jan' 2021 (Evening) Volatility continued to lay havoc. While bankNifty recovered, Nifty continued its journey southward. BankNifty saw support coming in at 30254, Nifty did not see any reasonable support. The risk aversion has been developing globally, but Nifty has been an underperformer for January across all major global markets. Partly this is driven from Budget related uncertainty.  Cash was taken out by FII and positions lightened in futures. Positions being driven through options. @ calls sold for every put and calls bought more than Puts.  My view is that the market has already bought in bad news and unless a fresh Bomb is blasted, do not see a major fall. Though a good announcement may move the index substantially upwards. Volatility through the budget day will definitely be seen. Any clear views on the short term will be made post the budget tomorrow. Till then avoiding leveraged positions. BankNifty generally seems to be stronger than Nifty as of now. For tomor...

28th Jan'2021 (Evening) Today marks the end of Jan series. An extremely volatile end to the first series of 2021. The last three weeks, market was under pressure and the selling and volatility intensified in the last week. On a monthly chart the candle formed is a shooting star, bearish candle with a small body and a large wick above, indicating weakness ahead. On the weekly chart, we see three red candles with the last one with a longer wick below.  The combination of above two, indicates a range bound February, capped on the upper side and may pick up support some where along. A bold decision / declaration in the budget may negate the view above.  FII have turned net sellers over the last few days. With selling intensifying every new day.They have sold for 6000 Cr plus over the last 4 trading day. Though DII came to the rescue today with a buying of 1700Cr. A follow up has to be watched. With the DII selling from lower levels, I suspect if they would buy so early. The buying...

27th Jan'2021 (Evening) FII has sold for the third consecutive day and the selling got intensified. My view yesterday went wrong. The bullish outlook in FnO is today diluted. More shorts were created than longs, more calls were sold and put longs were squared off. The selling is driven from a global sell off today. Europe sold and US is selling as I am writing this blog. Both supports I mentioned were broken today on Nifty, While Bank Nifty is a bit away from the second support i mentioned yesterday. Though, I also warned the volatility may get crazy movements. Nifty is now at an important support of 13956, if broken tomorrow then the next support expected would be at 13865. Major support only comes it at its 50DEMA of 13700. BankNifty is now at its 50DEMA, if broken, now may make a move towards its support at 28976. Though on the upside resistance would be seen at 14230 and 31500 respectively.  FII have been booking profit for the last 4 days. Nifty has corrected by 800 points and...

25th Jan'2021 (Evening) The markets have turned extremely volatile. Nifty after opening fell 160 points in 30 min, then rose 120 points and again came down 115 points, rose 100 points again before falling and closing lower. Wow, a good 100 point plus movement 3 times in the day. BankNifty story is even worse. 500 point movement thrice. The Index movements are just not tradable by option sellers (unless one is extremely agile and skilled). BTW, I am not trading till this month expiry. Though I am active stock based and in cash. With FII selling for a second consecutive day in cash, but taking bullish position in futures and options, I feel the volatility is gonna continue. The range though I feel is similar, as mentioned earlier.  Nifty has a range of 14222 to 14500 till expiry, BankNifty has a range of 31000 to 31500 till expiry. Though, looking at volatility weird movements are possible.  Nifty has support at 14222 and 14039 while Bank Nifty has support at 30893 and 28976. Th...

22nd Jan'2021 (Evening)  As mentioned a day earlier in my post, the data was all over the place, hence a price action watch was necessary to create a view. The worry came true on Friday, seeing the kind of fall and other pointer mentioned below. Markets opened weak and after moving a slight up move, started sliding following global cues. The slide got intensified and though a very minor pull back came in the last hour, it was sold out and market closed at the lower end of the day. FII have sold in the cash market and also reversed their positions in futures and options. They created 12000 plus shorts and unwound close to 6000 longs. Their net position on futures longs went down from 67:33 to 59:41. FII also sold more calls then puts and bought more puts than calls, indicating extreme caution. DII as usual contributed to the selling. The sentiment is dented as of now. Markets are at their support now. Nifty at a range of 14250-14350 and while Bank Nifty has breached its erstwhile su...

21st Jan'2021 (Evening) What a day it was. Opened strong at ATH, saw a strong resistance and then came profit booking. Indices falling 236 (Nifty) and 857 (BankNifty)  points respectively. With FII bullish in cash and Bearish in options, this was kind of expected, though the fall was much bigger and also somewhat recovered from the lows. Killing option sellers on both sides. I felt the expiry would be between 32300 and 32700, it actually closed 100 points outside this band. However, being on the call side, made a decent expiry profit. Had sold a straddle of BankNifty @32000 day before yesterday and am seeing a healthy profit on the same in two days. The Easing of VIX had cooled off the premiums and the position is now well in green. Because of the huge volatility the OI for option is all over the place. So would wait for tomorrows action to make some analysis.  As of now Nifty is picking support at 14350 and is getting rejected at 14750 (ATH). a breakout outside this band woul...

19th Jan'2021 (evening) Supports mentioned yesterday played out well. Very clearly mentioned yesterday, the correction would not be deep and markets expected to pick up from 14250 and 31850 on Nifty and BankNifty respectively. There was no heavy buying from the institutional side today. FII were playing mostly on the options side and have played out well.  Both Nifty and BankNifty covered the lost ground today. Both breaking out of yesterdays candle and closing above yesterday's high. Though they are still within the all time highs. A fresh breakout is expected only above the ATH.  Followup action tomorrow is also important to see. Till this happens, Expect the market to trade within the ATH and yesterdays low. This means Nifty between 14230 and 14660 . BankNifty between 31660 and 32750. For the current week expiry expect Nifty to close between 14400 and 14600 and BankNifty to close between 32300 and 32700. Based on ones risk appetite and management skills, Selling options out...

18th Jan'2021 (Evening) As mentioned from last couple of days, markets were extremely volatile today. Nifty moved 230 points and BankNifty 780 points. In fact Intraday the markets recovered a bit and fell again, creating lower highs and lower lows. Seeing this pattern, feel a bit of weakness has creeped in. While i am still bullish and somehow the data shows, the markets still enjoy support at levels mentioned yesterday. Viz. Nifty at 14250 and BankNifty at 32000. However, since the close has been marginally below the supports mentioned, caution is advised.  FII have still put in money, though they have created hedge through futures and options. There was no institutional selling today, hence I am optimistic for a quick recovery from here or atleast not a deep correction. Though, some specific stocks may see a higher correction. Lets watch the action tomorrow. Remember, price action is finally supreme. Today, financials, Pharma and Metals were particularly weak. Though, IT, Banking...

15th Jan'2021 (evening) FII buying has shrunk lately with a change in their long position in futures. Their longs have come down from 83:17 to 67:33 now. From last 2-3 days, the market pattern has changed. It opens high, plunges and then buying comes in, but it closes lower. Friday buying was late and less. The pattern induces caution. On a lower time scale the highs are lower and lows are also lower. While the supports of 14250 on Nifty and 32000 on Bank Nifty are intact, Caution advised in short term. As of now, long term bullish trend is intact. A short term bearish trend may emerge if Nifty breaches 14250 and for BankNifty if it breaches 31850. The IT stocks have shown a correction after their results, probably the bets on the price was higher. Can be watched for an entry if one has missed earlier. Though the right levels have to be decided as per ones investment horizon. HDFCBank result was extremely good. However, the amount of it is factored in the price is not clear. So wil...

13th Jan'2021 (Evening) As mentioned yesterday, markets were very volatile today. Nifty moved 216 points and Bank Nifty moved 526 points through the day. Reliance as expected picked up support at 1900 and moved for 70 points before the rally fizzled, It has been rangebound between 1890 and 2038 levels.  Seeing the BankNifty going down, booked profit on the HDFCBank position being carried. Also booked profits on ITC, though i feel this was too early to book ITC.  BankNifty seems very strong as of now. After the profit booking at ATH levels, picked up support at 32100 and closed above 32500. HDFCBank and ICICIBank seem particularly strong.  Nifty has a range of 14500 -14700 and BankNifty sees a tough fight between bulls and bears. I feel BankNifty has support at 32500, however the range could be wider due to the higher volatility and a bit of uncertainty, Caution advised. BhartiArtl saw some strong buying today due to the MSCI weightage hopes. Though it quickly saw some pro...

12th Jan'2021 (Evening)  Markets opened lower today and traded lower for some time, buying came later and helped elevate the markets. Bank Nifty as expected outperformed Nifty. Was watching HDFCBank for a fresh breakout and an all time high. It gave the market the required support. Reliance also picked support with an already strong Auto and IT pack. As mentioned in the week end analysis, sold BankNifty Puts below 31500.  Markets have started getting choppy now. With VIX going up, yields going up, FII long position coming down, their flow in cash coming down and building up hedges indicate the market is now waiting for a trigger to correct.  Markets from tomorrow till this expiry may remain choppy and caution is important. Picked ITC, Reliance today and am trailing HDFCBank now. I expect HDFCBank to hit 1530. Lets see. Band has widened on Nifty, may trade between 14200 - 14800. Bank Nifty though seems to indicate a band of 32000 - 33000 1. FII were net Buyers for 571 Cr t...

 8th Jan' 2021 (Evening) Nifty and BankNifty both opened gap up on Friday. After a bit of decline, Nifty picked up momentum and closed strong, BankNifty on the other side continued sliding. BankNifty has been showing weakness lately, Every time it opens higher, it slides and closes  lower.  Weakness in Bank Nifty is driven because all heavy weights HDFCBank, ICICI and Kotak are at critical levels. Underperformance of HDFC Bank has been key for Bank Nifty. I feel HDFC Bank is now close to giving a breakout and will support the journey of BankNifty. Though we need to wait for the breakout. On the other hand Reliance has to pick up support now. Both Reliance and Banking stocks if move, with IT and auto already moving, Nifty seems to have opened a move towards 14600. Nifty has support at 14200 and Banknifty at 32000 levels now. Nifty range for trading is now 14200 to 14600 and BankNifty has a range of 32000 to 33000. HDFC Bank may see a breakout above 1450 levels (I tweeted 1...

6th Jan' 2021 (Post Market)  Market opened gap up but could not sustain the opening. Gradually started slipping and Nifty closed in red while BankNifty closed marginally green. The volatility driven from US and corona fears curtailed the movements and introduced caution.  The bullish positions taken by FII in options yesterday are more or less reversed. Though the positive sentiment in US will change the mood tomorrow morning, I guess. There is a tug of war between vaccine roll out and rising cases. With more and more regions facing a rise in cases, a sense of caution has been introduced. Volatility index is rising for 3 days now, though not in a region of concern as of now. I see a Nifty range of 14000 to 14200 for tomorrow, though a strong US close can influence this range slightly. BankNifty range expected is 31700 to 32300. Again important to watch US close today and the opening tomorrow. 1. FII were net sellers for 483 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 380 Cr. A net se...

5th Jan' 2021 (Evening) Driven from the panic erupted in US, Markets opened negative today. The indices quickly recovered and continued strong and created a bullish engulfing candle on the daily charts. Was expecting this healthy correction since Monday, it partly came on Monday and partly today. The momentum is extremely bullish today. The options data suggests bulls in charge. If the US markets support today, I expect a gap up opening tomorrow. IT and financials were strong today. Took long position on BajajFinSrv. Expect this to move based on the strength in the financial sector. BankNifty gave a breakout above 31500 and seems strong now, to target a move towards all time high. ITpack continues strong. Have been tracking TCS, Infosys and HCLTech for a long time now. Nifty range has opened to move higher towards 14500 and BankNifty towards 32600 now. 1. FII were net buyers for 986 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 490 Cr. A net buying of 496 Cr from the institutional side. 2. ...

 1st Jan'2020 (Evening) Market saw lower volumes today. FII were probably not playing actively. Buying and selling from FII and DII respectively was lower. In fact DII were net buyers after some time (though very small number). All in all, it was not a full proportion trading day and hence did not indicate much about the start of the new series. Will have to watch the action on 4th Jan for leads. The Jan series though started with an OI of 13.1 Mn on Nifty against the start of Nov series with an OI of 12.7 Mn. Whereas BankNifty started with the same OI of 1.5Mn. FII are 75% long on the indices as of 1st Jan. Above two points at least as of now indicate the bullish stance of FII's. Looking at the Options OI and the charts as well, there seems to be a tug of war at the current level. A small correction will be healthy for the markets. Lets see if this comes for 100-150 points or 350 points to 400 points at some time. Would be happy if we see this tomorrow. BankNifty may also see ...