EquityCompound2

31st May' 2021 (Evening) Markets opened slightly lower today, saw a bit of slide and then quickly took support to rise and close strong. Nifty crossed 15600 and made a new All time high of 15606, before closing at 15582. BankNifty picked support at 34930 and then rose to cross 35500 to close at 35526. BankNifty had a strong resistance at 35450 and it struggled for almost the whole day to cross this. Both indices took support almost at the same levels I mentioned yesterday. Even after BankNifty crossing 35500, any reasonable unwinding of calls at 35500 were not noticed. Raising suspicion on the sustenance of BankNifty at this level. Nifty on the other had saw heavy put writing at 15500 without any reasonable call writing, indicating a strong momentum even at this level. While the market rise today, was a little more broader than Friday, Auto and IT still have not participated in the rally. Reliance was again a prime mover today, rising 3% again. A sustenance above 35500 tomorrow, co...

28th May'2021 (Evening) The opening day of the Jun series saw buying from both DII and FII side. Cash buying on the first day is normally a good sign.  FII created more longs than shorts and that too is a good sign for the markets. The FII are now 88% long on the indices.  Though, the FII did sell more calls than puts , this is could be indicative of some hedging from short term movements. Nifty on Friday crossed its all time high, saw some selling but did not fall much and recovered to close above its previous ATH of 15431. Not seeing an immediate rejection from these levels are indicative of strength. However, the broader market breadth was not strong. While Nifty 50 saw 27 stocks growing against 23 going down. Nifty 500 saw only 199 going up against 299 going down. Also while Nifty gained, most of the important indices made bearish candles on the daily chart. BankNifty though closed higher, actually made a bearish candle as compared to Nifty. Without participation of BankNi...

26th May'2021 (Evening) 1. FII were net buyers for 241 Cr today, while DII were sellers for 438 Cr. A net selling of 197 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 11998 longs and unwound 434 shorts on the indices 3. On the option front FII  sold 25132 calls and   sold 28164 puts. They also bought 48432 calls and  bought 48420 Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 15200 followed by 15000 and highest OI for CE is at 15500 followed by 15400. Highest Put writing was seen at 15300 and highest call writing was seen at 15400 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 34500 followed by 34000 and highest OI for CE is at 35000 followed by 36000. Highest Put writing was seen at 34500 and highest call writing was seen at 36000 levels.  6. Asian markets closed in green and Europe closed mixed. 7. US markets trading marginally in green 8. The breadth of the market was mildly positive today 9. Nifty opened at...

25th May'2021 (Evening) Markets opened gap up today and as mentioned yesterday, started to see selling. This was more pronounced in BankNifty than Nifty. On a daily chart, both indices made bearish candles with a reasonable tail below, indicating some support coming in at lower levels. While, Nifty still made candle with a higher high and a higher low, BankNifty actually made lower high and lower low. So I feel, todays low become important levels for tomorrow. If these levels are protected than, these may become immediate swing supports for the indices. Tomorrow's first half trade is important from this view point. 15300 and 35200 have proven to be strong resistances for today atleast. Levels continue to be important and buy on dips has been working for past few days. Buying near todays low tomorrow with a stop loss slightly below, may work if the market gives a dip, which i feel it will give. Nifty seems to be having support at 15150 and BankNifty at 34400 for this week. These...

24th May' 2021 (Evening) After a stellar rise on Friday, indices made some decent gains today as well. Nifty gaining 22 points and BankNifty  made 336 points. It is important though that both the indices made bearish candles on the first day of the last week in May. While the indices opened strong and rose initially, they had stiff resistance at 15250 for Nifty and 35200 for BankNifty.  As mentioned yesterday, this range is a critical resistance and may not be easy to take off. Both the indices were rejected from these levels. Markets may make another attempt tomorrow to breach these levels. The FnO positioning of FII are bearish and also DII and FII are not in sync in cash market. Nifty saw some shorts building up around 15300 levels and these may get stronger tomorrow if Nifty fails to take off 15300 levels tomorrow. BankNifty though hasn't seen a buildup of short as yet. So it may prove to be stronger than Nifty from these levels. However, a failure to take off 35200 tomorr...

21st May'2021 (Evening) Markets today made a profound move. After consolidating a bit the last hour move was fantastic. Most of the resistance levels were taken off. Nifty took off 15050, 15150 and closed at 15175. Cash buying was though not very heavy. In all FII bought for just 500 Cr and DII for 650Cr. The sentiment of the market was positive, driven by lower Covid cases and hope of easing of restrictions. FII also covered some shorts and created some longs. Though I see this as just a prevention of a deeper correction in short term. FII were positioned for a correction and had taken aggressive short positions. I am still skeptical of a sharp up move from here. I feel as of now market is back in a range (the band may be higher from the previous range of 14250 - 14900). The new range will become more clear tomorrow. Nifty currently is at its resistance of 15190 and then has resistance at 15330. Nifty has support at 15000 now. BankNifty took off 34300 and is now close to 35000. I ...

19th May' 2021 (Evening) After a stellar move over the last two days, markets took some breather today. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty made bearish candles on the daily chart.  While the FII turned buyers yesterday, they again sold today in cash market. DII also joined the selling and the institutions turned net sellers and combined sold for 1549 Cr. After the reversing the bearish trend developed in the FnO segment and aggressively covering their shorts, the FnO bets were neutral from FII side. They unwound some longs and shorts, sold more calls and bought more calls than puts. Global cues today were weak, probably due to the FED talk. Inflation remains a concern. US is trading weak as of now and todays close will be important to watch. Crypto turbulence has added to the volatility and stocks with exposure may get affected. So some shake out in global markets. Do not think it should affect our markets directly. Markets today did not see aggressive profit booking and has been consolidat...

18th May' 2021 (Evening) 1. FII were net buyers for 618 Cr today, while DII were buyers for 449 Cr. A net buying of 1067 Cr from the institutional side. 2. FII's created 19573 longs and unwound 9674 shorts on the indices 3. On the option front FII  sold 48029 calls and   sold 26034 puts. They also bought 86991 calls and  bought 41014 Puts. 4. For next week expiry, Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 14700 followed by 14500 and highest OI for CE is at 15500 followed by 15300. Highest Put writing was seen at 14700 and highest call writing was seen at 15600 levels. 5. For the next week expiry, Bank Nifty has the highest OI for PE at 32000 followed by 32500 and highest OI for CE is at 34000 followed by 34500. Highest Put writing was seen at 34000 and highest call writing was seen at 35500 levels.  6. Asian markets closed in green today and Europe closed mixed.  7. US markets are trading flat with Nasdaq marginally in green and Dow marginally in red 8. The breadt...

17th May' 2021 (Evening) Honestly BankNifty completely surprised me today. What a move it made. I was actually expecting to be slightly weak and it went out of the roof. FII sold big time today also. The selling from FII was strongly countered by DII and maybe some retail. So it was kind of interesting to see this. FII though have made some bullish bets in FnO. They added a good 7300 longs and unwound 2200 shorts. They also sold 67000 puts and unwound 18700 calls. The handover from US was pretty strong and also the Covid numbers were less than 3 lac after a long time and this probably gave the much needed boost. As mentioned yesterday, the indices breached important resistance levels and continued to rise. Indices are now at the upper limit of the current range. With Nifty at 14923 and BankNifty at 33459. A breach of these levels tomorrow could trigger a move towards 15050 and 34300 levels on Nifty and BankNifty respectively. The next level to watch for Nifty is 15050 and BankNifty...

14th May' 2021 (Evening) Indices opened gap up on Friday, but could not maintain their charm and slipped. While Nifty could pull in some support at lower levels, Bank Nifty appeared weak and closed near its day low. On a daily chart both Nifty and BankNifty made bearish candles. FII sold heavily on Friday, their highest in this month and after the selling on 30th April.  DII bought for 613 Cr, but nowhere to match the selling of FII. In FnO, FII unwound some shorts and bought calls heavily, indicating a bit of optimism but this is not supported by their moves in the cash segment.  While Nifty made lower low and lower high, some support came in at lower levels. Immediate previous swing low of 14595 and swing high of 14775 are crucial levels to watch tomorrow.  A breach on either side may take the index to its next support or resistance level. These levels were mentioned earlier and remain the same. Nifty resistance levels 14775, 14900, 15050 and supports at 14595, 14450, 1...

11th May' 2021 (Evening) As mentioned on Tuesday, the rise of market was misleading and does not strength. The markets on Wednesday opened on a negative note and continued to fall. Wednesday, being an expiry day, market movements were confounded with the expiry moves. A more profound fall was expected, but the expiry moves camouflaged that. The sentiment and data positioning still is bearish. FII and DII both sold in cash and the FnO positioning of FII is extremely negative. They are net short at a ratio of 40:60, after a long time. They created more shorts than longs on both indices as well as stocks. Being expiry, options on index were not that relevant but the FII positions on stock options were also bearish. The US inflation led concerns drove a negative sentiment globally, while on the domestic front, Covid cases and lowering of growth forecasts for India were the hanging factors. Todays close of US will be important to look at our opening tomorrow. On Nifty 14780, 14900 and 1...

10th May'2021 (Evening) As expected, Markets today opened on a positive note. But both the indices failed to build up any substantial movement from there. While Nifty did show some strength, BankNifty was a bit weaker out of  the two. In the cash market, FII put in some money. However, this 500 Cr was just enough to match the selling of DII. Finally, nothing majorly moved. FII buying is not complimented by any substantial positional buildup in FnO space, hence sustainability of this buying can be suspected. In futures, both Nifty and BankNifty have not seen any major build up, though I see a tug off war between the bulls and bears at these levels. A trend is yet to evolve.  It is important to see that both indices continue to hover around the upper range of the current range. A breach on either side could trigger a sharp movement. The intraday range for Nifty and BankNifty has been shrinking for the last few days. While both Nifty and BankNifty have breached their 20 and 50DEM...

7th May'2021 (Evening) Markets opened gap up on Friday, but the strong opening was sold off. Markets did see buying coming in at lower level, but again could not sustain the support for long and closed below the highs. on a daily time frame, Nifty made a Doji kind of candle but had a bullish body. BankNifty made a bearish candle and closed below the opening levels. While Nifty has breached its immediate resistance at 14625-14650, this may now act as its immediate support level. We do have to wait for this confirmation though. The next resistance for Nifty would be 14900 and then 15050. Unless these are taken off on a closing basis, we are not out of the woods. Support levels expected for Nifty are at 14625, 14450, 14275. Bank Nifty is still weak and has not convincingly taken off its resistance at 33000. It has crucial barriers at 33450, 34300 before a fresh move could be expected. Supports for BankNifty remain intact at 32575, 32154 and 31552. On a daily time frame both the indice...

5th May' 2021 (Evening) Honestly, I was expecting the market to open on a negative note today. However, the news of RBI Governor making announcement today changed the sentiment in the market.  Expecting some bold announcements, market was strong from opening itself. While there was nothing much to cheer about, the announcements also did not have to anything negative, so the mood just kind of continued. This was the reason that inspite of both FII and DII being net sellers, market actually made decent gains. On the FnO side, FII unwound some positions both on long and short side. However, they sold three puts for every call. Indicating some positivity within a range. The Covid nervousness persists in the sentiment. I feel that the Covid numbers, vaccination numbers would keep an overhang on the market for some time. There has been a bit of disconnect between US and Asian markets lately. Lets see how this plays going forward. Indices closed marginally above their immediate resistance...

4th May' 2021 (Evening) As mentioned yesterday, Markets opened strong today. Driven by Covid optimism of reduction in cases, here was a serious attempt by the bulls to breach the resistance, but it fell short of success. Nifty touched a high of 14723 and BankNifty rejected 33000. Some serious selling was seen subsequently and Nifty saw a fall of 260 points, while Bank Nifty saw a fall of 820 points.  The supports, i mentioned were protected today. The support of 14450 was protected on Nifty and 32154 was protected on BankNifty. The indices have closed weak today and hence this pessimism may get carried into the morning tomorrow. These levels if breached, look for support at the next level of 14275 on Nifty and 31552 on BankNifty.  I feel that the market is range bound and buying at these lower levels and selling at resistance levels could work in short term. Exercising caution is important though as the markets are sensitive and any negative news could trigger a knee jerk reac...

3rd May'2021 (Evening) Markets opened gap down today, but saw some consolidation through the day. With Nifty closing in green and though Bank Nifty closed in red, both the indices made bullish candles today. Both indices picked up support at levels mentioned yesterday and closed at high points of the day, leaving some optimism for opening tomorrow.  FII continued to sell today in cash and that too heavy (2289Cr). In F&O also, they created more short positions and unwound longs. The opening of this series at 14850 for Nifty and 33500 for BankNifty would continue to be strong resistance levels.  Though Markets may be looking at life beyond covid, for any reasonable upmove, FII support would be required. So for now, indices may remain rangebound.  I mentioned this yesterday as well. On options, Nifty range for this week could be 14500 to 15000 and Bank Nifty could be 32000-33000. Levels remain same as yesterday.  Nifty supports at 14450, 14275 and 14155 and resistan...

30th April' 2021 (Evening) Covid cases continue to drive the underperformance of our markets. While it was felt in between that the market has started to look through the Covid crisis and is factoring in the post Covid and vaccination scenario. The markets were seen shaken again on Friday. The move in the last couple of days could have been expiry driven is a feeling. Over the week end, the nervousness of the market was obvious. Major events like the Election results were expected and hence probably the players did not leave heavy positions. Hence there was sharp unwinding of OI on both indices. The results are out and except for Bengal, there are no major surprises. Lets see how is this taken by the market. Nifty is at its 20 and 50DEMA. And it is an important support. If this is breached in the opening tomorrow, Then opening on Monday and the level at which it takes support are important. Three levels are important, 14450, 14275 and 14155.  BankNifty is in a more interesting situ...